隔夜原油再现短期破位，跟踪反抽力度

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward support for crude oil (external market) has broken again due to the ongoing sell - off of US dollar assets, and short - term crude oil still fluctuates with macro sentiment. In the medium term, Sino - US confrontation is not expected to reverse completely, and the outcome of US - Japan tariff negotiations is not optimistic. After the first round of sentiment release during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US recession trade may return. The Fed's hawkish stance and high interest rates are negative for risk assets. Regarding the Middle - East geopolitical situation around Iran, two rounds of US - Iran talks have ended without a breakdown, but the third - round negotiation this week needs to be tracked. A poor negotiation result may increase geopolitical influence around early May [1]. - After the overnight breakdown of crude oil at the hourly level, it should be seen as a rebound, and the test result of the pressure tonight should be focused on. All energy and chemical varieties are weaker than crude oil, and most varieties did not rebound with crude oil today, with a bearish unilateral thinking [3]. Industry Analysis Crude Oil - Weekly Fundamental View: OPEC + will accelerate production increase in May, and Sino - US confrontation is difficult to ease in the medium term. However, short - term OPEC compensation cuts and new sanctions against Iran support the oil price rebound. Crude oil is in the rebound and repair stage after over - decline. The second round of US - Iran talks has ended, and the third - round negotiation information needs to be tracked this week [4]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Crude oil has a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level that may end. After breaking the short - term support on April 17th last night, the short - term upward trend may end. It should be seen as a rebound in the early morning, and the upper pressure level to be concerned about is around 497. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities with reversal patterns in the hourly cycle [4]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - Styrene: The cost side is under pressure due to limited upside space for crude oil rebound. The short - term supply and demand of pure benzene are both weak, and the supply - demand situation is turning loose. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Short positions can still be held, with the stop - loss reference being the high point on April 21st [7]. - PX: The cost side is under pressure. The terminal textile demand is weak due to high US tariffs on China, and the polyester production at a high level is likely to decline in the future, which will be transmitted to PX. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Short positions should be held, with the stop - loss reference being the high point on the night of April 18th [10]. - PTA: The cost side is under pressure. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but the medium - term demand is under pressure due to high US tariffs on China. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Short positions should be held, with the stop - loss reference being the high point on the night of April 18th [13]. - PP: From late April to May, PP enters the centralized maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. The cost side is under pressure due to limited crude oil rebound space. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Last week's short positions should be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on April 16th [17]. - Urea: The weekly operating rate remains high at 85.74%, and the demand is under pressure in the short term. The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The hourly - level short - term structure is bearish. Last week's short positions should be continued to be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on April 18th [20]. - Methanol: Due to tariff pressure, the export demand for downstream products is weak, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The hourly - level structure is bearish, but there are currently no trading opportunities in the hourly cycle [24]. - Rubber: The short - term situation follows the tariff sentiment. The supply is expected to be loose after the Southeast Asian rubber tapping season, and the demand is weak. The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. Existing short positions should be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on April 21st [28]. - Caustic Soda: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. After an increase in positions and a breakdown today, yesterday's 15 - minute cycle short positions should be converted into hourly - level short positions [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. It is in intraday consolidation today without a trend reversal. Last week's short positions should be continued to be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on the night of April 15th [31]. - Plastic: The cost side is under pressure, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The daily - level and hourly - level structures are bearish. Short positions should be held, with the stop - profit reference being the high point on the night of April 15th [33].