国金期货沪铜日度报告-20250422

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current core contradiction in the copper market lies in the game between "strong fundamental support" and "insufficient macro - driving force". In the short term, copper prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall under fundamental support, yet lack the power for continuous breakthrough. It is expected that the CU2506 contract will maintain range - bound trading [3] Group 3 Price - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper 2506 contract on April 21, 2025, was 77,290 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan or 1.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 122,500 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,109 lots to 169,600 lots [3] Macro - The risk of economic stagflation in the US is rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is constrained by high inflation. Short - term liquidity easing is difficult to be the driving force for copper price increases [3] Inventory - On April 21, the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 52,791 tons, a decrease of 12,306 tons from the previous day, indicating an accelerated destocking of refined copper in China [3] Refined - scrap price spread - On April 21, the Mysteel refined - scrap price spread was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan from the previous day, but still significantly lower than the reasonable spread. The low refined - scrap price spread continuously suppresses the substitution demand for scrap copper, supports refined copper consumption, and accelerates inventory destocking [3]