产业格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: April 22, 2025 - Report Focus: Analysis of the steel and iron ore markets, including price trends, industry dynamics, and market forecasts 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.74%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the supply of rebar is stable, and demand has improved seasonally, leading to a slight improvement in the fundamentals. However, the sustainability of the demand improvement is weak, and overseas risks remain, putting continued pressure on steel prices, which are expected to oscillate at low levels. A breakthrough in the future depends on domestic policy support [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have increased, but demand concerns persist due to tariff risks, and the fundamentals have not improved. Hot - rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.21%, trading volume decreased, and open interest was stable. Currently, strong ore demand has supported the iron ore fundamentals, but the expectation of increased supply remains, and concerns about medium - term oversupply persist. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Global Shipbuilding Orders: According to Clarkson's latest data (as of April 10, 2025), in March 2025, there were 72 new global ship orders, totaling 1,839,958 CGT. Compared with February 2025 (82 orders, 3,864,149 CGT), the number decreased by 10, and the compensated gross tonnage decreased by 52.38% month - on - month. Compared with March 2024 (252 orders, 5,190,856 CGT), the number decreased by 180, and the compensated gross tonnage decreased by 64.55% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received 34 orders (615,640 CGT), Japanese shipyards received 6 orders (81,022 CGT), and South Korean shipyards received 19 orders (908,350 CGT), accounting for 33.46%, 4.40%, and 49.37% of the global new ship order volume respectively [6]. - Real Estate Transaction Data: From April 14th to April 20th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.342 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.5516 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 19.1% [7]. - Indian Steel Tariffs: On April 21, 2025, India's Ministry of Finance and Taxation announced a 12% temporary safeguard measure tax on imported non - alloy and alloy flat steel products for 200 days. A CIF minimum price limit of 675 - 964 US dollars per ton was set, and no tax would be levied if the CIF import price was higher than the limit [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,160 yuan and 3,170 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,303 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,250 yuan and 3,210 yuan respectively, with a decrease of 10 yuan and 0 yuan; the national average price was 3,323 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Iron Ore and Related Products: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 766 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 7.22 US dollars, an increase of 0.07 US dollars; from Brazil was 18.91 US dollars, an increase of 0.03 US dollars. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.10 US dollars, an increase of 0.80 US dollars, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 100.10 US dollars, an increase of 0.20 US dollars [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,075 | - 0.74 | 3,123 | 3,065 | 1,344,693 | 67,071 | 2,012,421 | 58,881 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,171 | - 0.81 | 3,215 | 3,163 | 542,500 | 51,723 | 1,437,260 | 49,993 | | Iron Ore | - | 711.0 | 0.21 | 718.0 | 706.5 | 337,797 | - 100,011 | 610,938 | 746 | [11] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [14][16][20][21]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts on the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports (seasonal and total), 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are presented, along with the inventory and its month - on - month changes [19][23][26][27]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts on the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are included [29][31][33][35]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 31,500 tons, but production enthusiasm remains due to acceptable profit margins, and supply pressure persists. Demand has continued to rise, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 211,400 tons, but the daily high - frequency transactions are still weak, and the sustainability of the apparent demand increase needs to be monitored. Steel prices will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at low levels, and a breakthrough depends on domestic policies [38]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have changed. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 11,000 tons, but the profit per ton has been shrinking, limiting future production growth. Demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 88,300 tons, mainly due to high production in downstream industries. However, contradictions in downstream industries have accumulated, and external demand concerns due to tariff risks remain. Prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [39]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production has stabilized, and ore demand remains strong due to high terminal consumption and pre - holiday inventory replenishment. However, weak steel prices have squeezed steel mill profits, and there is a risk of production cut feedback. Although domestic port arrivals have increased, overseas shipments are weak, and overall supply is stable. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate [40].