Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly tracking of commodity quantitative CTA by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of methanol increased by 0.08%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.09%, the inventory factor rose by 0.08%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.08%. This week's comprehensive signal is neutral [2][3] - The domestic methanol operating rate changed from an increase to a decrease, with the supply side being neutral; the MTO operating rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region decreased last week, turning the demand side bearish; the inventory of production enterprises was low and continued to be destocked, with the inventory side remaining bullish; the methanol futures price and the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor released a bearish signal, with the spread side being neutral to bearish [3] Group 3: Float Glass Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of float glass decreased by 0.20%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the spread factor remained unchanged, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.03%. This week's comprehensive signal is bearish [6] - The weekly output of float glass enterprises decreased slightly, with the supply side being neutral; the real - estate transaction volume in first - and second - tier cities decreased, but increased in third - tier cities, with the demand side being neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises was at a high level and slightly increased, with the inventory side remaining bearish; the main continuous basis released a bearish signal, with the spread side being neutral to bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of pipeline - gas - made float glass turned from negative to positive, with the profit side being neutral to bullish [6] Group 4: Iron Ore Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of iron ore weakened by 0.23%, the demand factor weakened by 0.16%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.24%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week's comprehensive signal remains bearish [7] - The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise, turning the supply side signal bullish; the export volume of Chinese lead alloys in April decreased compared to March, with the demand side signal remaining bearish; the LME lead registered warehouse receipts decreased, with the inventory side remaining neutral to bearish; the SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline, with the spread side signal remaining bearish [7] Group 5: Lead Analysis - Last week, the supply factor of lead weakened by 0.23%, the demand factor weakened by 0.16%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.24%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.13%. This week's comprehensive signal remains bearish [7] - The SMM domestic lead concentrate price continued to rise, turning the supply side signal bullish; the export volume of Chinese lead alloys in April decreased compared to March, with the demand side signal remaining bearish; the LME lead registered warehouse receipts decreased, with the inventory side remaining neutral to bearish; the SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fee continued to decline, with the spread side signal remaining bearish [7]
商品量化CTA周度跟踪-20250422
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-04-22 11:11