2025年3月财政数据点评：支出端再加码

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In Q1 2025, there was a certain differentiation between the revenue and expenditure sides of the narrow - and broad - based fiscal budgets. The tax revenue was weak due to corporate profitability, while the expenditure side achieved a "good start" supported by increased government bond issuance and pre - allocations. The broad - based fiscal deficit reached 2.3 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the same period in the past three years. The key to the sustainability of fiscal expansion is whether the revenue growth can stabilize, especially considering the expected pressure on exports in Q2 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 3 - Month General Budget Revenue with Marginal Improvement - In March 2025, the national general budget revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, showing marginal improvement compared to January - February. In Q1, it decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, lower than the 1.3% in 2024. The Q1 revenue completed about 27% of the annual budget, the same as last year [1]. - Structurally, non - tax and local revenues were the main contributors, and the gap between them narrowed. In Q1, tax revenue decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue increased by 8.8%. In March, the growth rate gap between tax (down 2.2% year - on - year) and non - tax (up 5.9% year - on - year) revenues narrowed. In March, local revenue increased by 2.8% year - on - year, while central revenue decreased by 5.3% [2]. 3.2 Tax Structure: General Uptick in Major Tax Growth Rates - Corporate and individual income taxes were affected by the Spring Festival timing. In March, corporate income tax increased by 16% year - on - year (previous value - 10.4%), and individual income tax decreased by 58.5% year - on - year (previous value + 26.7%). VAT growth accelerated, rising 4.9% year - on - year in March [3]. - Consumption tax growth accelerated, increasing by 9.6% year - on - year in March. The decline in vehicle purchase tax narrowed to - 14.1%. This was in line with the positive social retail data, reflecting the strength of domestic demand in 2025. However, there were uncertainties in the follow - up, such as export chain transmission and overdraft of durable goods subsidies [3]. - Real - estate - related taxes improved overall. In March, the decline in transaction - link taxes (deed tax and land value - added tax) narrowed. Among holding - link taxes, property tax growth accelerated to 22.5%, and the arable land occupation tax turned positive at 0.4%. This was consistent with the improving real - estate sales in March [4]. - Stamp duty increased significantly. In Q1, stamp duty increased by 21.1% year - on - year, much higher than the - 9.5% in 2024. In March, it increased by 39.5% year - on - year, with securities transaction stamp duty up 63.2% year - on - year, corresponding to the increased trading volume of A - shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges [4]. - Import - link taxes and tariffs continued to decline in March, but the decline narrowed, and the impact of the current round of reciprocal tariffs was not fully reflected. Attention should be paid to changes in trade - related tax items in April [4]. 3.3 3 - Month General Budget Expenditure Continued to Accelerate - In March 2025, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year - on - year, accelerating from the 3.4% in January - February. In Q1, cumulative expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year, close to the 4.4% annual target. The Q1 expenditure completed about 25% of the annual budget, faster than the average of the past five years [5]. - In terms of specific areas: - People's livelihood expenditures led. In March, social security and employment, health, and education expenditures increased by 9.0%, 4.5%, and 7.9% year - on - year respectively, accelerating from January - February, indicating continuous efforts in stabilizing people's livelihood and employment [6]. - Most infrastructure - related expenditures rebounded. The growth rates of agriculture, forestry, and water affairs, and urban and rural community expenditures turned positive, increasing by 2.5% and 0.6% year - on - year respectively in March. Energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure increased significantly to 16.3% year - on - year (due to a low base), while transportation expenditure turned negative to - 8.1% [6]. - Science and technology expenditure decreased by 4.8% year - on - year in March, but its proportion continued to rise. Debt interest payments maintained high growth (16%), and the growth of culture, tourism, and media expenditure declined to 2.4% [6]. - In Q1, narrow - based fiscal expenditure was stronger than revenue. The tax revenue was weak due to PPI and the nominal growth center. The actual deficit in the general public budget reached nearly 1.3 trillion yuan in Q1, much higher than the average of about 530 billion yuan in the same period from 2022 - 2024. The funds came from pre - issued government bonds, especially the general government bonds, whose Q1 issuance progress reached 30%, the highest in recent years [6]. 3.4 Government - Fund Revenue Remained at a Low Level - In March 2025, national government - fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year - on - year, and in Q1, it decreased by 11% year - on - year. The annual budget target is 0.7%. The state - owned land use right transfer income decreased by 15.9% year - on - year in Q1, still in the bottom - seeking stage. However, considering the land transaction premium rate, it may improve marginally in the coming months. The Q1 government - fund revenue completed about 15% of the annual budget, similar to the past three years [8]. 3.5 Government - Fund Expenditure Increased Against the Trend - In March 2025, national government - fund expenditure increased by 27.9% year - on - year, and in Q1, it increased by 11.1% year - on - year. The annual target is 23.1%, and the Q1 expenditure completed about 16% of the annual budget [9]. - The reasons for the increase in broad - based fiscal expenditure were the carry - over of unused government bond funds from the end of last year and the pre - allocation of "two new" and "two important" funds in Q1 this year [9]. 3.6 Outlook - Starting from April, the impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, increasing export pressure in Q2 and potentially affecting employment and inflation, which may pose challenges to fiscal balance. The key to the sustainability of fiscal expansion is whether revenue growth can stabilize [10]. - There is a growing need for further fiscal expansion this year. Possible measures include direct subsidies for service consumption, unified policies and clear funding for real - estate acquisitions, incremental funds for urban renewal, and optimization of local independent projects [10].