甲醇日评：宏观情绪或有好转-20250423

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current methanol market shows a certain divergence between the inland and port regions. The inland spot is relatively strong due to factors such as spring maintenance, while the port is relatively weak due to the expected recovery of imports, resulting in a relatively weak performance of methanol futures. There is no obvious driving force for methanol from both the supply and demand sides. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term (View score: 1) [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): MA01 decreased from 2342 yuan/ton to 2326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton (-0.68%); MA05 decreased from 2353 yuan/ton to 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (-0.76%); MA09 decreased from 2275 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Averages): Prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while prices in Hubei decreased from 2465 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from 63 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [1] - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 decreased from 470 yuan/ton to 462.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.60%); the price of Datong Q5500 decreased from 540 yuan/ton to 532.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.39%); the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 535 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton (-0.93%) [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol in the Northwest MTO increased from 623 yuan/ton to 633 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton (1.61%); the profit of natural gas - to - methanol increased from - 410 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton (14.63%) [1] - Methanol Downstream Profit: The profit of East China MTO increased from - 749.57 yuan/ton to - 734.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton (2.07%); the profit of acetic acid increased from 573.93 yuan/ton to 584.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton (1.92%); the profit of MTBE decreased from 187.84 yuan/ton to 134.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.76 yuan/ton (-28.62%); the profit of formaldehyde decreased from - 268.80 yuan/ton to - 273.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8 yuan/ton (-1.79%); the profit of diethylene glycol decreased from 366 yuan/ton to 352 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton (-3.83%) [1] 3.3. Important Information - Domestic Futures Prices: The main methanol contract MA2509 oscillated within a range, opening at 2269 yuan/ton, closing at 2260 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 487391 lots and an open interest of 665951, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future is 258 - 268 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future is +1 - 1.5%. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of a small number of far - future arriving cargoes from other Middle Eastern regions is +0.4 - 0.6%. Attention should be paid to the logistics situation in a certain Middle Eastern country recently [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw the MA contract oscillating within a range, with the 09 night session closing at 2258. The Trump administration released a signal of tariff relaxation with China, improving market risk appetite, leading to a rise in US stocks, a fall in gold, and a rise in crude oil, which had a certain boost to the prices of methanol and other energy - chemical products. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term [1]