港股市场策略周报2024.1.22-2024.1.28-20250423

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market stabilized and rebounded this week after a previous panic, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by +2.21%, +2.30%, and -0.27% respectively [13] - All major industry sectors, except for industrials, saw gains this week, with a defensive dividend style prevailing, particularly in the financial and conglomerate sectors, both of which had weekly gains exceeding 4% [13] - The 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index slightly rose to around 50%, still below the 5-year average [13] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows that March economic data and Q1 GDP performance exceeded expectations, but external demand is expected to impact Q2, with a focus on whether policy measures can be strengthened [43][45] - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is highly synchronized with the Chinese economy, as over 80% of profits come from Chinese companies, necessitating close attention to changes in the Chinese economic outlook [36] Group 3: Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative prosperity such as automotive, technology, and internet, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [45] - Local Hong Kong banks and utility stocks, which are relatively independent in their fundamentals and benefit from a rate-cutting cycle, are also highlighted as favorable [45] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was HKD 1.99 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 5.59 billion the previous week, with 78 companies participating in buybacks, down from 100 [24] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 939.31 million, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 289.29 million [24][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buy companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy amount of HKD 4.838 billion, Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 2.914 billion, and Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with HKD 2.360 billion [31] - Conversely, the top net sell companies included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net sell amount of HKD -14.672 billion and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (2828.HK) with HKD -7.231 billion [32]