铅锌日评：原料偏紧与需求不佳博弈，铅价高位整理，沪锌宽幅整理-20250423

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead: The lead market is in a state of game between tight raw materials and poor demand. With some refineries reducing production due to raw material shortages and the demand side in the off - season, short - term lead prices are expected to be mainly in wide - range consolidation, and subsequent macro uncertainties need to be continuously monitored [1]. - Zinc: In the short term, the macro sentiment has great uncertainties, and zinc prices are mainly in wide - range consolidation. In the long - term, as TC has room for further increase, the center of zinc prices may move down, and subsequent macro sentiment disturbances need to be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Data - Prices: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,915 US dollars/ton, down 0.36% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The Shanghai lead basis was - 100 yuan/ton; the spread between Shanghai lead near - month and Shanghai lead continuous - one was - 10 yuan/ton, etc. [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 28,503 lots, down 17.15%; the open interest was 37,471 lots, down 1.80%; the trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.76, down 15.63% [1]. - Inventory: LME lead inventory was 281,275 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 42,746 tons, down 1.86% [1]. Lead Industry News - Several lead refineries in central and eastern China have reduced production due to raw material shortages. For example, a refinery in central China reduced production by 50% and now has a daily refined lead output of 200 - 300 tons [1]. Lead Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Primary lead refineries have basically resumed production, with a significant increase in electrolytic lead output in March. In April, some refineries in Henan entered maintenance, and primary lead output may decrease. Secondary lead refineries are under pressure from losses and raw material shortages, forcing them to reduce their operating rates [1]. - Demand: It is currently the off - season for lead consumption, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc Market Data - Prices: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,285 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,601 US dollars/ton, up 0.93% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The Shanghai zinc basis was 225 yuan/ton; the spread between Shanghai zinc near - month and Shanghai zinc continuous - one was 240 yuan/ton, etc. [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 161,940 lots, down 16.81%; the open interest was 130,353 lots, up 3.67%; the trading volume to open interest ratio was 1.24, down 19.76% [1]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory was 192,225 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 5,168 tons, down 24.61% [1]. Zinc Industry News - Several companies released their Q1 2025 production reports. Sierra Metals' zinc concentrate output in Q1 was about 0.49 million tons, a 12% decrease from the previous quarter; South 32's zinc output in Q1 was 11,000 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous quarter [1]. Zinc Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, the restriction of raw material shortage on refinery production is weakening, and the production and profit of refineries are improving, with an obvious trend of increasing output [1]. - Demand: The start - up rate of the galvanizing sector has increased, while that of die - casting zinc alloys and zinc oxide has decreased. Downstream enterprises have relatively high raw material inventories and are mainly consuming existing stocks, reducing their purchases of zinc ingots [1].