Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday nickel and stainless - steel market shows a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but there is no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The market is currently speculating on the new tax rate implementation and tariff adjustments, with limited upside potential, and may return to a volatile situation [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.75% and a historical percentile of 66.9% [2]. - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2]. - Procurement Management: When there are production and procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. 2. Market Factors Analysis - Positive Factors: The MHP production of IMIP was damaged due to a landslide, leading to a short - term supply shortage in the nickel salt industry chain; the new Indonesian resource tax came into effect on April 26, raising the overall cost; the US dollar index shows a continuous weakening trend [4]. - Negative Factors: As the Philippine rainy season ends, the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing; LME nickel inventory is difficult to digest and remains at a historical high; after the tariff policy buffer period, there is a negative feedback in the industrial chain, and the cost support for ferronickel has declined overall; the demand for refined nickel remains weak, and the oversupply situation continues, with no obvious driving force for the overall terminal demand; stainless - steel inventory remains high, and export difficulties increase the difficulty of terminal digestion [4]. 3. Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 125,570 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the LME nickel 3M price is 15,745 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.32% change. The trading volume is 95,837 lots, and the open interest is 37,304 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 25,384 tons, with a 0.25% increase [2][6]. - Stainless - Steel Futures: The latest price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The trading volume is 134,890 lots, and the open interest is 143,261 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 175,567 tons, with a - 0.52% decrease [7]. - Inventory Data: The domestic social nickel inventory is 43,960 tons, an increase of 652 tons; LME nickel inventory is 204,528 tons, an increase of 1,938 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 999.4 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 24,173.5 tons, an increase of 3,690.5 tons [8].
镍、不锈钢日报:回调接近尾声,或恢复震荡局势-20250423
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-04-23 01:45