棉花：缺乏基本面驱动，关注外部因素影响

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to the influence of external factors. The overall market sentiment is relatively weak, with spot trading remaining sluggish and downstream demand showing signs of decline [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 12,795 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.89%, and its night - session price was 12,865 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. CY2507 closed at 18,750 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.87% decline, and its night - session price was 18,830 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase. ICE Cotton 07 rose 0.57% to 67.26 cents/pound [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CF2509 was 283,595 lots, an increase of 25,934 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 792,926 lots, an increase of 29,642 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 5,298 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,689 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,080, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 2,533, an increase of 21. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 10 [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,680 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan. The price in Shandong remained unchanged at 14,298 yuan/ton, while the price in Hebei increased by 3 yuan to 14,236 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The CF59 spread was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The trading atmosphere of domestic cotton spot remained weak, and the spot basis was relatively firm. Spinning mills were cautious in purchasing. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was mainly in the range of CF09 + 1200 - 1350, and that of the same - quality Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF09 + 1450 [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and the sales of spinning mills were not good. Downstream orders decreased, and the inventory of spinning mills gradually increased, but the current inventory level was still acceptable. The cotton grey fabric market was mainly driven by rigid demand, and most weavers reported flat sales. Due to the lack of new orders, weavers maintained a "buy - as - you - go" purchasing strategy [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton rose slightly yesterday, benefiting from the recovery of overall market risk appetite [2]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].