Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of the feed and breeding industry are in a state of game, with prices showing frequent fluctuations and different trends in the short and long - term for various products [1][2][5][6][7][8][9]. - Different products face different supply and demand factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these factors [1][2][5][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - Price Situation: On April 23, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. The early - morning pig price on that day was also stable [1]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: In April, supply increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to shrink. The approaching May Day holiday increased the stocking demand, but the high pig price, off - season consumption, and the loss of slaughter enterprises limited the demand increase. In the long - term, from April to September 2024, supply increased, and the second - quarter of 2025 still faced large slaughter pressure. Although the pig production capacity was reduced starting from December 2024, the reduction amplitude was limited, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter was still large [1]. - Strategy: Against the background of increased and postponed supply, the pig price rebound was under pressure, but the decline was also limited due to the forward - discount of the futures market. The 07 contract had a pressure level of 13800 - 14000 and a support level of 13300 - 13400; the 09 contract had a pressure level of 14600 - 14800 and a support level of 13800 - 14000. It was advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options of 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. 2. Egg - Price Situation: On April 23, the price in Shandong Dezhou decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared with the previous day, while the price in Beijing remained stable [2]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: In the short - term, the approaching May Day holiday increased the terminal consumption expectation, and the alternative consumption of eggs was acceptable, supporting the egg price. However, the supply was sufficient due to the large number of newly - laid hens from molting and previous chick - raising, and the slow elimination of production capacity. In the long - term, the high - profit - driven high - level chick - raising from December 2024 to February 2025 led to a continuous increase in supply in the second quarter, and the supply was expected to increase in the second half of the year [2]. - Strategy: The 06 contract was in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the support at 3000. The 08 and 09 contracts were considered bearish in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the elimination of near - term hens and the fluctuations of raw material costs [2]. 3. Oil Palm Oil - Price Situation: On April 22, the Malaysian palm oil main 7 - month contract rose by 1.43% to 3967 ringgit/ton, and the national palm oil price rose by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The MPOB March report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory began to rise. In April, the production increased slightly, while the exports of China and India increased significantly. In the long - term, after the Eid al - Fitr, the palm oil entered the production - increasing season, and the inventory at home and abroad continued to rise [5]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the 07 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the support at 3600 - 3700. In the long - term, the palm oil price was likely to decline from May to July [5]. Soybean Oil - Price Situation: On April 22, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract fell by 0.56% to 48.00 cents/pound, and the domestic soybean oil price rose by 40 - 60 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The domestic import of US soybeans stopped, and a large amount of Brazilian soybeans were imported. The supply pressure in South America in the second quarter was huge, but there were also factors such as potential Sino - US negotiations, improved US biodiesel demand, and a decline in the new - crop sowing area. In the long - term, the market would focus on the decline in the new - crop sowing area of US soybeans and possible weather speculation from July to September [6]. - Strategy: The 07 contract of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate around 1050 in the short - term. The domestic soybean oil price was supported in the short - term due to supply shortages, but would face large supply pressure in the second quarter and was expected to rise after a decline in the long - term [6]. Rapeseed Oil - Price Situation: The ICE rapeseed was in a high - level fluctuation, and the domestic rapeseed oil price rose by 110 - 170 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: The Canadian rapeseed was not affected by the US - Canada tariff, and its export and processing demand were strong. The domestic old - crop rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and the new - crop sowing might face drought. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level, and the supply pressure in April was large. The import of Australian rapeseed was allowed, which loosened the strong - price foundation of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. - Strategy: The domestic rapeseed oil was expected to be in a high - level fluctuation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the official confirmation of Australian rapeseed import [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - Price Situation: On April 22, the US soybean 07 contract rose by 4.5 cents to 1046 cents/bushel, the domestic M2505 contract closed at 2988 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 3480 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: In the short - term, the soybean meal inventory continued to decline before the May Day holiday, and the price was expected to remain strong. However, with the increase in soybean arrivals at the end of April, the price increase was limited. In the long - term, the tariff policy led to an increase in the cost of importing US soybeans, and the domestic soybean meal price was expected to be strong due to factors such as a possible decline in the US soybean sowing area and weather disturbances [8]. - Strategy: The 09 contract was recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 3150. In the long - term, it was advisable to buy at low prices, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900. For spreads, 5 - 9, 7 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads were recommended for positive arbitrage [8]. 5. Corn - Price Situation: On April 22, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was stable at 2210 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was stable at 2362 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: More than 90% of the corn at the grass - roots level had been sold, and the transfer of grain sources to the trading end, the high - price of corn, and the high port inventory restricted the price increase. In the long - term, the new - crop production was expected to decrease, and the import continued to decline, but the price increase was limited due to factors such as the possible lower - than - expected reduction in production, the decline in planting costs, and the supplement of substitutes [9]. - Strategy: The corn price was expected to be stable and slightly strong in the long - term, and it was advisable to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the support at 2280 for the 07 contract [9].
饲料养殖产业日报-20250423
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-23 02:34