主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term decline. With limited further positive impact from China - US trade tariff events, upcoming US soybean planting, and China's concentrated soybean imports starting in April, it has a short - term bearish outlook. Caution is advised for bullish and chasing - up operations before the holiday [1][2][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term rebound, but overall bearish. High domestic rapeseed meal inventory, new - season rapeseed harvest in May, and an enlarged soybean - rapeseed meal price difference lead to reduced substitution. It is under pressure in the short term, and chasing - up should be cautious [1][4][7]. - Palm Oil: Short - term consolidation. International palm oil supply is recovering, and its price center may shift downward. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and no supply - side pressure for now. Caution is needed for bullish and chasing - up operations, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and Malaysia's April palm oil export data [1][8][9]. - Cotton: Range - bound oscillation. US cotton planting is ongoing with improved soil moisture, and there is a temporary buffer in the tariff war. In China, new cotton planting is over half - done, and the market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the release of short - term negative factors, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [1][10][13]. - Red Dates: Weak operation. The focus is on planting, with sufficient supply and weak demand due to the arrival of fresh fruits. It is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation, and attention should be paid to the new production season [1][14][15]. - Live Pigs: Be vigilant against corrections. The supply pressure will continue to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reflects weak fat - pig demand, and there is a risk of price suppression from the release of heavy - weight pigs. Be cautious about the post - holiday market correction [1][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The main contract closed at 3054 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3671.43 yuan/ton, up 2.96%. The national average soybean crushing profit was 412.4603 yuan/ton, up 98.59 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply and Demand: Internationally, the impact of China - US trade tariffs is limited, and US soybean planting is about to start. Domestically, from April to June, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, while soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: The main contract closed at 2658 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2612.63 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 715.746 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.82 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The soybean - rapeseed meal price difference has expanded to over 600 yuan/ton, reducing the substitution of rapeseed meal [1][7]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. The national average price was 9013 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The national daily trading volume was 200 units, down 64.29% [8]. - Supply and Demand: In April, international palm oil supply and demand both increased. Indonesia's March exports decreased slightly, while Malaysia's April 1 - 20 production increased by 9.11% and exports increased by 3.64%. The probability of inventory accumulation is high [8][9]. Cotton - Market Situation: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14215 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 tons, down 11 tons [10]. - Supply and Demand: In the US, the cotton planting rate was 11% as of April 20. In China, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, up 1.5%. The spring peak season is ending, and textile orders and开机 rates are declining [11][12]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The main contract CJ2509 closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 3.23% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous week [14][15]. - Supply and Demand: Xinjiang's jujube trees are gradually sprouting. The supply in the downstream market is sufficient, and the demand is weakening due to the arrival of fresh fruits [15]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14485 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14940 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 36.891 million heads, up 0.36% [16]. - Supply and Demand: The supply pressure in April - June is incrementally limited, but it will increase in the third quarter. The market is still facing supply - demand imbalance, and there is a risk of price correction after the holiday [17][18].