中辉有色观点-20250423

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold remains strong in the long - term due to international order disruption and high purchasing power from various economies, with a long - term strategic allocation value and a price range of 790 - 840 [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, following the fluctuations of gold and base metals, and should be treated with an interval trading approach, with a price range of 8000 - 8500 [1]. - Copper is expected to rebound. Short - term long positions can be carefully held, and mid - to long - term prospects are positive, with Shanghai copper in the range of 76500 - 78500 [1]. - Zinc's upward movement is under pressure. Short - term rebound is limited, and mid - to long - term, it presents a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with Shanghai zinc in the range of 21800 - 22800 [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rise and then fall, with price ranges of 16300 - 17300 and 255000 - 265000 respectively [1]. - Aluminum prices will rise slightly, with a price range of 19500 - 20300 [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise and then fall, with a price range of 123000 - 129000 [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be sold on rebounds, with price ranges of 8600 - 9000 and 67000 - 70000 respectively [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Trump's change of attitude led to a short - term adjustment in gold. During the 90 - day tariff suspension period, the negotiation process is uncertain, which supports gold in the long run. Gold prices in SHFE and COMEX showed different trends, and the silver price was in a range [2]. - Industry Logic: Tariff impacts are negative. Trump's attitude towards Japan in trade and towards Powell in interest - rate policies changed. The emergence of reciprocal tariffs accelerates the global de - dollarization process, and both short - term and long - term factors support gold prices [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: Long - term gold investment is recommended, with short - term chasing of long positions requiring careful control of positions. Silver should be traded within the range of 8000 - 8500 [3]. Copper - Market Review: US copper rose significantly, and Shanghai copper followed suit, stabilizing above the 77,000 mark [5]. - Industry Logic: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in March but is expected to decline in April. Social inventories are continuously decreasing, and terminal demand is supported by power investment, new energy vehicles, and the air - conditioning season [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions and buy on dips near the moving averages. Short - term Shanghai copper is in the range of 76500 - 78500, and London copper is in the range of 9000 - 9500 US dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc's rebound is under pressure, and its upward space is limited [8]. - Industry Logic: The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing steadily. Terminal demand is weak, especially with the impact of anti - dumping tariffs on exports. The profits of zinc smelters have turned positive, and production is increasing [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term rebound is limited, waiting for more macro - level guidance. Mid - to long - term, short on rallies. Shanghai zinc is in the range of 21800 - 22800, and London zinc is in the range of 2580 - 2680 US dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are relatively strong, while alumina is under pressure [10]. - Industry Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the impact of tariffs is weakening, inventories are decreasing, and demand is increasing. For alumina, there are supply - side issues with over - supply in the short - term and price pressure in the mid - term [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips, with the main contract in the range of 19500 - 20300. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak [11]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are also weak [12]. - Industry Logic: The impact of tariffs on nickel is weakening. There are policy uncertainties in Indonesia's nickel mines, and stainless steel inventory removal is facing difficulties, with an overall oversupply situation [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with nickel's main contract in the range of 123000 - 129000 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2507 of lithium carbonate hit a new low [14]. - Industry Logic: The supply of lithium carbonate is in excess, but the inventory accumulation speed is slowing down. There is a possibility of small - scale restocking by downstream factories, and there is a chance to short on rebounds [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: The price is expected to be weak, and short on rebounds, with a price range of 67000 - 70000 [15].