Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The core logic for this year lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US will have repeated tariff policies towards countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe. As the pricing window for long - term contracts on the US routes approaches, retaliatory tariffs have become a significant disturbing factor for future shipping trends. Although shipping companies intend to support freight rates, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under radical tariff policies [5]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1 Freight Indexes - SCFIS: On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [3]. - NCFI: On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [3]. - SCFI: On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [3]. - CCFI: On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone: In March, the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [3]. - China: In February, the manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the labor contraction rate slowed down significantly [4]. - US: In March, the preliminary value of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (the lowest in three months), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 54.3 (the highest in three months), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.5 (the highest in three months) [4]. 3.3 Market and Policy Analysis - Tariff Policy: In April, the US tariff policies towards Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries are uncertain. The retaliatory tariffs have added a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies want to support freight rates, but price wars among alliances are inevitable [5]. - Market Performance: On April 22, the main contract 2506 closed at 1456.8, down 4.24%, with a trading volume of 50,500 lots and an open interest of 38,700 lots, an increase of 939 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating in each contract [5]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure. The window period is short and the volatility is large [5]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended that risk - preference investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [5]. 3.5 Other Information - GDP Forecast: Bloomberg economists lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.3% and the global GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.7%. It is expected that the global economic growth will remain at a low level of 2.8% in 2026 [6]. - Anti - Dumping and Countervailing Duties: The US Department of Commerce announced the final anti - dumping and countervailing duty rates on crystalline photovoltaic cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Some Cambodian enterprises were imposed a countervailing duty of up to 3403.96%, and the "national entities" in Vietnam were imposed an anti - dumping duty of up to 271.28% [6].
集运日报:特朗普发言再出反复,昨夜盘异动反弹,近期操作难度较高,风险偏好者可等待反弹机会-20250423
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-04-23 03:30