2025年第一批钨矿开采指标点评：钨供给刚性延续，重视战略资源配置价值

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Natural Resources has issued a notice that the total control index for tungsten mining in the first batch of 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 6.5% compared to the same period last year [2][4] - The distribution of the 2025 mining indicators shows that Jiangxi, Hunan, and Henan provinces account for the highest proportions, with 37%, 27%, and 12% respectively, totaling 76% of the national indicators [10][12] - The supply of tungsten is expected to remain rigid due to policy constraints and resource limitations, with a significant focus on strategic resource allocation [10][12] Summary by Sections Mining Indicators - The 2025H1 tungsten mining indicator is 58,000 tons, down from 62,000 tons in 2024H1, with an annual quota of 114,000 tons [2][10] - No province has achieved a year-on-year increase in mining indicators except for Fujian, which saw a slight increase of 2 tons [10][12] - Jiangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, and Guangxi have seen significant decreases in their mining indicators, with reductions of 2,370 tons, 400 tons, 266 tons, and 240 tons respectively [10][12] Policy and Supply Dynamics - The tightening of tungsten supply is a response to the current global strategic situation, with stricter controls on the supply of strategic resources like tungsten and rare earths [10][12] - Domestic mining operations are facing challenges due to long-term depletion and rising costs, with the average cost of domestic tungsten mining now at 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton [10][12] - New mining projects are expected to contribute limited output until after 2026 due to infrastructure and cost issues [10][12] Strategic Importance and Price Outlook - Tungsten is recognized as a strategic resource in China, with the country holding 53% of global tungsten reserves and producing 82% of the world's tungsten [10][12] - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in tungsten prices due to resource depletion and increased costs, with historical price movements closely linked to global manufacturing activity [10][12] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten for potential investment opportunities [10][12]