关税冲击暂缓，市场进入震荡整理期

• Model name: BTC Timing Model; Model construction idea: The model aims to identify the bottoming and recovery period of BTC after the strongest impact of tariff uncertainty; Model construction process: The model uses the BTC/GOLD ratio to represent market risk preference. Since February, the BTC/GOLD ratio has been continuously declining, indicating a decrease in market risk preference. Currently, it has entered a bottoming and warming period[29] - Model name: Gold Duration Model; Model construction idea: The model aims to predict the short-term target price of gold based on rolling 5-year duration and convexity; Model construction process: The model uses rolling 5-year duration and convexity to predict the short-term target price of gold. The formula is: $ \text{Gold Price Target} = \text{Duration} \times \text{Convexity} $; Model evaluation: The model suggests a short-term gold price target of $3200, waiting for the Fed's rate cut expectations to be clear and the Trump put[32] - Model name: High Growth and Dividend Strategy Rotation Timing Model; Model construction idea: The model aims to rotate between high growth and dividend strategies based on effective signals from single factor tests; Model construction process: The model selects effective signals from single factor tests at the end of each month, including term spread, social financing growth rate, CPI and PPI quadrants, US bond interest rates, and fund games (ETF, insurance funds, foreign funds). Each period's average score is used as the final score. The formula is: $ \text{Rotation Score} = \frac{\sum \text{Single Factor Scores}}{\text{Number of Factors}} $; Model evaluation: The model suggests a 60:40 allocation between dividend and growth strategies[75] - Model name: Large Cap and Small Cap Strategy; Model construction idea: The model aims to identify the preference for large cap or small cap based on momentum and credit spread; Model construction process: The model uses momentum and credit spread to recommend starting to allocate to large cap. The formula is: $ \text{Large Cap Preference} = \text{Momentum} + \text{Credit Spread} $; Model evaluation: The model currently recommends a preference for large cap[76][78] - BTC Timing Model, IR: 0.5[29] - Gold Duration Model, IR: 1.1[32] - High Growth and Dividend Strategy Rotation Timing Model, IR: 0.93[75] - Large Cap and Small Cap Strategy, IR: 0.54[76][78] - Factor name: COT Chip Index; Factor construction idea: The factor aims to represent the market's large account long and short views; Factor construction process: The factor calculates the COT chip index by subtracting speculators from hedgers. The formula is: $ \text{COT Chip Index} = \text{Speculators} - \text{Hedgers} $; Factor evaluation: The recent gold trend and COT chip divergence momentum may be difficult to sustain[32] - Factor name: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index; Factor construction idea: The factor aims to represent the uncertainty of economic policies; Factor construction process: The factor uses the 30-day moving average of the arithmetic mean of the initial value of the US economic policy uncertainty index. The formula is: $ \text{Economic Policy Uncertainty Index} = \frac{\sum \text{Daily Values}}{30} $; Factor evaluation: The index maintains a bullish view on gold[37] - Factor name: US Federal Government Fiscal Deficit; Factor construction idea: The factor aims to represent the monthly fiscal deficit of the US federal government; Factor construction process: The factor uses the 12-month moving average of the arithmetic mean of the US federal government fiscal deficit. The formula is: $ \text{Fiscal Deficit} = \frac{\sum \text{Monthly Deficits}}{12} $; Factor evaluation: The index maintains a bullish view on gold[38] - Factor name: US Treasury Real Yield; Factor construction idea: The factor aims to represent the real yield of US Treasury bonds; Factor construction process: The factor uses the 10-year real yield of US Treasury bonds. The formula is: $ \text{Real Yield} = \text{Nominal Yield} - \text{Inflation Rate} $; Factor evaluation: The index maintains a bullish view on gold[39] - COT Chip Index, IR: 1.1[32] - Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, IR: 1.0[37] - US Federal Government Fiscal Deficit, IR: 0.0[38] - US Treasury Real Yield, IR: 0.0[39]