SDL(SZ:002658) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-23 06:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xuedilong (002658) with an expected price target of 8.2 CNY, representing a potential upside of approximately 19% from the current price of 6.89 CNY [1][2][6]. Core Views - The demand for carbon monitoring is expected to be released, presenting development opportunities under the logic of domestic substitution [1]. - The company is focusing on traditional businesses in ecological environment monitoring and industrial process analysis while exploring downstream demand across multiple industries [6]. - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in scientific instruments due to tariff disturbances, with the company aiming to advance into higher-end analytical instruments [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The total revenue is projected to be 1,420 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 6.0%. It is expected to grow to 1,675 million CNY in 2025, representing an 18.0% increase, and continue to rise to 2,106 million CNY by 2027 [2][7]. - Net Profit Forecast: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 169 million CNY in 2024, down 16.9% year-on-year, with a recovery to 208 million CNY in 2025 and 261 million CNY in 2027 [2][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is expected to be 0.27 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.33 CNY in 2025 and reaching 0.41 CNY by 2027 [2][7]. - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26 in 2024 to 17 in 2027, indicating improving valuation over time [2][7]. Business Performance - Revenue Breakdown: The ecological environment monitoring system generated 11.38 billion CNY in sales, down 5.83% year-on-year, while the industrial process analysis system saw a 24.13% decline to 1.85 billion CNY. Other businesses, however, grew by 67.54% to 0.97 billion CNY, mainly due to increased revenue from energy-saving and environmental protection projects [6]. - Gross Margin: The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 41.97%, with a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year. The fourth quarter gross margin improved significantly to 44.89%, up 4.56 percentage points year-on-year [6].