Xinda Securities·2025-04-23 06:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in supply and demand, with a narrowing decline in ticket prices during the off-peak season and an expected rebound in ticket prices during the peak season. The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [2][13]. - The March operational data from various airlines indicates that the industry is maintaining a high passenger load factor, with a year-on-year increase in load factor and a slight increase in turnover volume despite a slowdown in growth rates [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Continuous improvement in supply and demand is noted, with off-peak ticket price declines narrowing and peak season ticket prices expected to rise. The report recommends focusing on major airlines [2][13]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has narrowed, with Q1 average ticket prices down 12%. The average economy class ticket price from January to March 2025 was 722 RMB, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year [4][27]. - The average ticket price for March showed a trend of narrowing declines, with weekly average ticket prices from late March to mid-April showing improvements in year-on-year comparisons [4][27]. 3. Oil and Exchange Rate Trends - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 was 5,952 RMB/ton, down 10% year-on-year. The price of domestic aviation fuel decreased to 5,602 RMB/ton in April, a decline of 15.4% year-on-year [5][42]. - The Brent crude oil price averaged 74.98 USD/barrel in Q1 2025, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a further decline to an average of 66.81 USD/barrel in April, down 24.9% year-on-year [5][42]. 4. Airline Capacity and Load Factor - Airlines are reallocating capacity to international routes, with domestic capacity showing a year-on-year decline while maintaining high load factors. The overall passenger load factor reached 83.3% in March, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][15]. - In March, China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding 13 planes, while other airlines also reported increases in fleet size [6][47]. 5. Operational Data Overview - The operational data for March 2025 shows that the industry turnover volume (ASK) increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 6.7% year-on-year. The domestic turnover volume grew by 1.7% year-on-year, and international routes have nearly recovered to 98.3% of 2019 levels [3][15][25].