Xinda Securities·2025-04-23 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - Continuous improvement in supply and demand is expected, with a narrowing decline in ticket prices during the off-peak season and a potential rebound in peak season prices. The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [2][13]. - The industry is experiencing a high passenger load factor, with March data showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, reaching 83.3% [3][15]. - The average ticket price for the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 12% year-on-year, with a gradual narrowing of the decline observed in recent weeks [4][27]. - Oil prices have continued to decline, with the average price of aviation kerosene in Q1 2025 at 5,952 RMB/ton, down 10% from the same period in 2024 [5][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in air travel demand and suggests monitoring specific airlines for investment opportunities [2][13]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The industry has seen a narrowing decline in ticket prices, with Q1 2025 average ticket prices at 734 RMB, down 12% year-on-year. Recent weeks have shown a trend of decreasing year-on-year declines in ticket prices [4][27]. 3. Oil and Exchange Rate Analysis - Oil prices have shown a consistent downward trend, with April's domestic aviation fuel price at 5,602 RMB/ton, a 15.4% decrease year-on-year. The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB rate at 7.2074 as of April 22, 2025 [5][42]. 4. Airline Capacity and Performance - Airlines have shifted capacity towards international routes, with domestic capacity showing a year-on-year decline. The report notes that the passenger load factor for March has increased, indicating potential for further growth in international travel [6][47].