关税博弈下的经济走向与资产配置

Core Insights - The global macroeconomic environment is currently experiencing significant turbulence, with the US facing increased risks of stagflation while China's economic resilience is becoming evident [1] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration has disrupted global trade dynamics, heightening market uncertainty [1] - In this context, safe-haven assets like gold are gaining value, and A-shares are at historically low valuations, presenting investment opportunities [1] Global Macroeconomic Overview - The IMF forecasts global growth rates to remain at 3.3% for 2025-2026, below the historical average of 3.7% [2] - Inflation is generally on a downward trend, but service sector inflation remains sticky [2] - Divergence in global monetary policies is evident, with some central banks initiating rate cuts while others maintain a cautious stance [2] US Economic Conditions - As of March 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth is at 2.4%, with core CPI at 2.8%, while service CPI remains high at 3.7% [3] - The budget deficit for the first half of FY 2025 exceeds $1.3 trillion, with federal debt to GDP surpassing 120% [3] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy aims to reduce trade deficits and promote manufacturing return, but it has led to significant market volatility and challenges to the dollar's credibility [3][19] China Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by strong exports, improving consumption, and proactive fiscal policies [5][43] - The core CPI turned positive in March, indicating initial policy effectiveness, although PPI remains in negative growth territory [5] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, but continued policy support is necessary [5] Asset Class Performance and Outlook - The RMB exchange rate has limited depreciation space, with the central bank maintaining controllable risks [6] - The bond market presents more opportunities than risks, with expected easing policies starting in Q2 [6] - A-shares are currently attractive, with 22 out of 31 sectors having P/E ratios below the historical 50th percentile [6] - Gold has shown strong performance, with COMEX gold reaching $3341.3 per ounce, indicating long-term investment value during global uncertainty [6] Strategic Responses - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption through various measures, including increasing household income and optimizing the consumption environment [6] - Promoting the transformation of foreign trade enterprises is crucial to prevent excessive competition and cultivate new markets [6] - Accelerating the internationalization of the RMB is essential, focusing on regional cooperation and enhancing offshore market systems [6]