固定收益周报：债市或将延续窄幅震荡格局-20250423

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation pattern. Tariff games are evolving from short - term disturbance variables to long - term asymmetric variables, with an expected impact on the fundamentals in the second quarter. A reserve requirement ratio cut is likely to be implemented in the second quarter as the supply of interest - rate bonds increases. The window for an interest rate cut is difficult to open in the short term due to the pressure on banks' net interest margins. Next week, the bond market may continue to oscillate narrowly due to the neutral impact of capital - side disturbances and low demand for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - Monday: Loose expectations dominated the spot - bond trend. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation to inject 430 million yuan of liquidity, with a net daily withdrawal of 505 million yuan. The 10 - year active bond yield initially rose due to better - than - expected March social financing data, then stabilized after the release of March import and export data, and the yield curve flattened at the end of the day [7]. - Tuesday: There was a narrow - range oscillation under loose liquidity. The central bank conducted 1645 million yuan of reverse repurchases to offset 1000 million yuan of MLF maturities, with a net daily withdrawal of 1029 million yuan. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect was present, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fluctuated within ±1bp [7]. - Wednesday: Affected by economic data and the release of the 2025 Treasury bond issuance plan, the Treasury bond yield fluctuated sharply throughout the day, and the curve showed a bull - flattening trend. The central bank's net withdrawal of 144 million yuan did not change the loose capital situation. The 10 - year active bond yield rose slightly by 1bp at the end of the day [8]. - Thursday: Supply shocks and policy games resonated, causing yields of all maturities to oscillate upwards. The central bank increased reverse - repurchase investment, and the capital side remained loose. The planned issuance of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds and real - estate policy signals suppressed the bond market [8]. - Friday: The market maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and the curve flattened. The central bank conducted a 2505 - million - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation to hedge against tax - payment pressure. The short - end yield rose, and the long - end yield declined [8]. 3.2 Secondary Market - Short - end yields increased while long - end yields decreased, driving the narrowing of the term spread. As of April 18, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.4300%, up 3.22bp from the previous Friday; the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.6493%, down 0.75bp; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.9042%, up 4.15bp. Similar trends were observed for China Development Bank bonds [11]. - The term spreads of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds showed different trends. The 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds narrowed by 2.38bp to 21.93bp, and that of China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 3.16bp to 11.07bp [14]. 3.3 Liquidity Tracking 3.3.1 Capital Side - From April 14 to April 18, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 23.38 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 80.8 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 47.42 billion yuan maturing and 10 billion yuan of MLF withdrawn. Next week, 80.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, a larger amount than the previous week [16]. - Overnight capital rates increased, while 7 - day capital rates decreased. The R001 increased by 3.8bp to 1.6788%, and the R007 decreased by 4.12bp to 1.7206%. The difference in capital costs between non - bank institutions and banks decreased, and the capital stratification phenomenon eased [17]. - The SHIBOR rates showed a mixed performance. As of April 18, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month SHIBOR rates changed by 5.10bp, 3.50bp, 1.40bp, - 2.40bp, and - 2.50bp respectively compared to April 11 [24]. - The bill rates decreased slightly. As of April 18, the half - year national - share direct - discount rate and the half - year national - share transfer - discount rate decreased by 8.00bp and 12.00bp respectively compared to April 11 [28]. 3.3.2 Bond Supply - From April 14 to April 18, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased compared to the previous week, while the net financing increased. The total issuance scale was 80.6437 billion yuan, a decrease of 608.4 million yuan from the previous week, and the net financing scale was 61.1368 billion yuan, an increase of 72.6598 billion yuan [31]. - The issuance scale of government bonds increased, and the net payment increased. The issuance of Treasury bonds was 43.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.784 billion yuan, and the issuance of local government bonds was 20.0617 billion yuan, a decrease of 132.4 million yuan [35]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, the net financing decreased significantly, and the issuance rate decreased slightly. The total issuance was 70.96 billion yuan, an increase of 2.747 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 353 million yuan, a decrease of 12.859 billion yuan [36]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - US Treasury yields declined overall. From April 14 to April 17, the yields of 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds decreased by 5.00bp, 15.00bp, 16.00bp, 20.00bp, 14.00bp, and 5.00bp respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y term spread changed by 1.00bp to 53.00bp [45]. - The US dollar index weakened, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB declined. From April 14 to April 17, the US dollar index fell 0.45% to 99.23, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB fell 0.08% to 7.2055 [47]. - Gold prices reached new highs, and crude oil prices rebounded significantly. From April 11 to April 17, the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.79% to 3323.10 US dollars per ounce, and the WTI crude oil price rose 4.92% to 64.57 US dollars per barrel [49].