中国房地产行业：下调预测，波折而非逆转 （摘要）

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific developers, including China Resources Land, China Overseas, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Longfor Group, due to their favorable positioning in the market [3][43]. Core Insights - The report has adjusted its forecasts for the real estate industry, predicting a delay in price stabilization for first and second-tier cities by 6-12 months, now expected around mid-2026 [1][11]. - The impact of the US-China trade tensions is anticipated to create short-term challenges for the housing market, particularly affecting the secondary market, where bid-ask spreads are expected to widen [2][13]. - Despite the downward adjustments, the report suggests that the long-term outlook for the real estate market remains positive, especially if structural reforms are prioritized [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Forecast Adjustments - The report has lowered the sales volume forecast for the secondary housing market by 13% for 2025-2027, with a price reduction of 2% [2]. - For the primary market, the sales volume forecast has been reduced by an average of 6% for 2025-2026, with a 2% decrease in investment predictions [2][21]. - The completion area forecast has also been adjusted downward, reflecting a trend that has not met expectations [2][21]. Developer Coverage - The core earnings per share (EPS) forecast for covered developers has been adjusted down by 4%-6% for 2025-2027, with target prices reduced by an average of 3% [2][47]. - Developers with significant land reserves in first-tier cities are expected to recover more quickly, with a focus on quality land acquisitions [3][32]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to maintain stable contract sales growth, contrasting with a projected decline for private-owned enterprises (POEs) [47]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the average daily new home sales in export-reliant cities have dropped by approximately 30% since the tariff announcement, compared to a 25% decline in other cities [7]. - The performance divergence among cities is noted, with top-tier cities showing stronger fundamentals and population growth compared to lower-tier cities [8]. - The report emphasizes that the secondary market is likely to face more significant challenges due to deteriorating supply quality and increased competition from new homes [14][18].