TRANSFAR ZHILIAN(SZ:002010) HTSC·2025-04-23 01:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 5.62 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company's 2024 annual report shows a revenue decline of 20.6% year-on-year to 26.72 billion RMB, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 74.3% to 150 million RMB, primarily due to one-time factors [1][2]. - The core business gross margin improved to 13.5%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in net profit margin [2][3]. - The logistics segment faced weak demand, leading to a revenue drop of 35.3% to 15.99 billion RMB, while the gross margin increased by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - The chemical segment showed robust growth, with revenue increasing by 20.7% to 10.7 billion RMB, driven by strong performance in synthetic rubber [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at 26.72 billion RMB and net profit at 150 million RMB, which was below expectations [1][2]. - The gross margin for the core business improved to 13.5%, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points [2]. Logistics Business - The logistics business generated revenue of 15.99 billion RMB, down 35.3% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.34 billion RMB [3]. - The smart highway port revenue slightly decreased by 0.8% to 1.21 billion RMB, but the gross margin improved to 80.6% [3]. Chemical Business - The chemical segment achieved revenue of 10.7 billion RMB, up 20.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 2.24 billion RMB [4]. - The revenue from synthetic rubber increased by 52.7% to 2.55 billion RMB, with a market share of 60% in the domestic market [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to 519 million RMB and 902 million RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.17 billion RMB [5]. - The company is assigned a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.90x for 2025, reflecting an estimated target price of 5.62 RMB [5].