震荡整理，阶段性需求或助推反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - Urea demand will increase periodically, and the futures price shows signs of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1,830 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract opened high and closed low, and the rebound was not smooth. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. Although the futures showed signs of a rebound in the past two days, the market demand did not provide kinetic energy support. The daily output of urea fluctuated slightly, and it was expected to continue to rise this week. The downstream purchasing power was insufficient, and the market trading sentiment was not stimulated by the futures. Agricultural demand was expected to see bargain - hunting purchases next month. The demand for urea from compound fertilizer factories was limited, and the price in the Northeast region had limited room for a significant increase under supply pressure. The inventory accumulation was large this period, indicating poor downstream demand transmission [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,789 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and closed slightly lower at 1,762 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.56%. The daily trading volume decreased, and the open interest was 212,129 lots (+15,474 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,487 lots, and short positions increased by 17,260 lots. On April 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,163, a decrease of 97 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,770 to 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton, and the quote of large - particle urea was 1,720 - 1,750 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes were stable today, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 78 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On April 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,600 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.57% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.12 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% [12]