华锦股份：油价中枢回落，炼化景气度有望改善-20250423

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 34.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.795 billion yuan, indicating a shift to loss [2][4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 10.096 billion yuan, down 23.35% year-on-year but up 202.56% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -906 million yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year loss but a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter [2][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated refining and chemical company in China, with a focus on three main sectors: petrochemicals, fertilizers, and asphalt/lubricants [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 34.596 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 7% [14]. - The operating profit was -2.901 billion yuan, representing -8% of revenue, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.795 billion yuan [14]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be 90 million yuan, with projections of 430 million yuan and 640 million yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has optimized its refining operations, reducing the processing ratio of light crude oil from 16% to 12-13% [11]. - New product development has been emphasized, with a contribution rate of 37.12% from new products in the year [11]. - The company operates three production bases and has a total annual production capacity of 8.3 million tons of crude oil processing, 500,000 tons of ethylene, and 132,000 tons of urea [11]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates an improvement in refining profitability due to a rebound in oil prices and a recovery in downstream demand [11]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position, supported by its cost advantages in the fertilizer sector and ongoing optimization in its refining segment [11].