宏观消息扰动引发市场波动加剧，PX、PTA估值小幅修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Macro news disturbances have intensified market fluctuations, leading to a slight repair in the valuations of PX and PTA. The negotiation process between the US and Iran has hindered the rebound of oil prices, and Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence has reignited risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, Trump's claim that China's reciprocal tariff level is too high has alleviated market concerns, resulting in a slight upward movement in oil prices. The pessimistic export outlook for the polyester downstream and weak domestic demand may cause the negative feedback in the industrial chain to continue. The US reciprocal tariff policy has impacted the terminal demand for polyester. Attention should be paid to future tariff negotiation trends, and in the short - term, it will follow cost changes [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PX & PTA - PX: The main contract PX2509 closed at 6,110 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 162 yuan/ton. Multiple domestic PX plants have maintenance plans, with the domestic operating rate at 77.8% and the Asian operating rate at 72.5% [1][2]. - PTA: The main contract PTA2509 closed at 4,350 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton. Some PTA plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the operating rate is around 81.1%. The total transaction volume in the Light Textile City was 1.076 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 885,200 meters [1][2]. 3.1.2 Polyester - Short - fiber: The main contract PF2506 closed at 6,010 yuan/ton, up 0.84% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,285 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 260 yuan/ton. Some short - fiber production capacities have implemented production cuts, and the supply - side pressure is expected to be significantly reduced [4]. - Bottle chips: The operating rate of bottle chips has increased by 15.47% to 80.46% as the maintenance devices have gradually restarted, putting pressure on the supply side [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - PX: The main contract price decreased by 0.98%, the trading volume increased by 2.01%, and the open interest decreased by 0.05%. The CFR price in the Chinese main port decreased by 0.40%, and the basis increased by 35.80% [6]. - PTA: The main contract price decreased by 1.01%, the trading volume increased by 4.58%, and the open interest increased by 5.41%. The CFR price in the Chinese main port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 88.00%, and the import profit increased by 6.06% [6]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price decreased by 0.47%, the trading volume decreased by 15.75%, and the open interest increased by 0.01%. The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.40%, and the basis increased by 23.20% [6]. - Other indicators: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the price of ethylene glycol decreased. The prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged. The processing spreads of most products increased, and the inventory days of some polyester products changed [7][8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics - China's central bank released March financial data, showing that the new loans and social financing increment significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a slow recovery in financing demand. However, due to the uncertain progress of the tariff war, the economic uncertainty remains high, and the bottom - supporting policy will be implemented according to the situation [9]. - In the US, the import prices unexpectedly decreased in March due to the decline in energy product prices, indicating that inflation was easing before Trump's comprehensive tariff policy took effect [9].