美对华关税预期缓和，有色普涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: The copper price opened higher in the morning, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 78,000 yuan mark before falling back. It oscillated below 78,000 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest increased slightly. The price increase was due to Trump's recognition of high tariffs on Chinese goods and the expected significant reduction. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, the refined - scrap spread has widened, and the industrial support is strong but the driving force will decline. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress the price increase. It is expected that the short - term copper price will oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 78,000 yuan [4]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price slightly rose and then fell in the morning, oscillating above 19,800 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest decreased continuously. The price increase was also due to the expected tariff reduction. The short - term macro environment is improving, high profits of smelters suppress the price, while active downstream production provides support. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,000 yuan [5]. - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated in the range of 125,000 - 126,000 yuan and closed above 126,000 yuan, with the open interest decreasing slightly. The short - term price has repeatedly failed to break through the 126,000 yuan mark, facing significant technical resistance. The short - term industrial outlook is weak, and the downstream stainless - steel market is sluggish. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will be weak [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On April 23, a fatal accident occurred at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, leading to a full - scale shutdown for safety and an investigation. Citi raised the copper futures price forecast to $8,800 per ton due to Trump's relaxed stance on tariffs [8]. - Aluminum: According to IAI data, the global primary aluminum production in March 2025 was 6.227 million tons, compared with 6.089 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 5.66 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in March was 3.729 million tons, compared with a revised 3.399 million tons in the previous month [8]. - Nickel: On April 23, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,800 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,850 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,300 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,650 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [21][23][25]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [32][35][36].