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金开新能(600821):2024年年报点评:绿电持续扩容,“绿电+算力”新模式积极拓展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth outlook and potential for returns exceeding market benchmarks by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.612 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 803 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.05% [1][4]. - The company's power generation increased by 10.60% year-on-year to 7.905 billion kWh, with sales volume rising by 10.82% to 7.757 billion kWh [2]. - The company is expanding its green energy capacity, with a total installed capacity of 5.554 million kW by the end of 2024, a 24% increase year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 782 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.75%, but a net profit of 56 million yuan, down 13.13% [1]. - The average on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar power decreased by 1.92% and 6.12% respectively, impacting overall profitability [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 1.88 percentage points to 55.11% [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company’s installed capacity for solar and wind power reached 3.913 million kW and 1.514 million kW respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline of approved projects totaling 7.468 million kW, ensuring future growth in green energy capacity [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring new business models by integrating green energy with computing power, marking its entry into the AI computing power service sector [3]. - The company is also looking into opportunities in high-energy-consuming industries and coal chemical sectors, laying the groundwork for future developments [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 901 million yuan and 1.108 billion yuan respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 1.229 billion yuan [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.45, 0.55, and 0.62 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12, 10, and 9 [4].