Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-23 12:33Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from the upcoming quarterly reports, with significant opportunities in the konjac market due to its current demand boom [2][11] - The liquor sector is experiencing a supply-side clearance, with a focus on strong alpha liquor companies that may exceed expectations during the earnings season [2][11] - The beverage and snack sectors are showing signs of recovery, with improved retail data and performance from key players like Dongpeng and Master Kong [2][12][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From April 14 to April 18, the food and beverage sector rose by 0.24%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.59%. Notable performances included soft drinks (+4.42%), pre-processed foods (+4.11%), and snacks (+3.79%) [1][23]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector saw a decline of 0.27%, attributed to the off-peak consumption season and concerns over falling prices of major products like Moutai. The sector's performance is expected to stabilize as inventory adjustments occur [2][11]. - Retail data for March showed a total retail sales of liquor and tobacco at 51.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2][11]. Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector declined by 0.44%, but March data indicated a 1.9% year-on-year increase in beer production, suggesting a potential recovery as warmer weather approaches [12][14]. - Key players like Heineken and Dongpeng reported strong earnings, with Dongpeng's Q1 revenue and net profit increasing by 39% and 48% respectively [12][15]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The snack sector is highlighted for its potential growth, particularly in the konjac market, which is currently experiencing a demand surge. Companies like Absolute Taste are innovating with AI models to enhance performance [2][14][17]. - The dairy sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policies supporting childbirth and rising beef prices, which may stimulate demand for dairy products [2][20]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the food and beverage sector include Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, Budweiser, and Mengniu Dairy. For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are suggested [3][22]. - Focus on consumer goods, particularly snacks and dairy, is advised due to their potential for strong performance in the upcoming quarters [3][22].