弘亚数控：业绩短期承压，海外动能有望持续释放-20250424

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.694 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.43%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 517 million yuan, a decrease of 12.31% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from national policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which may lead to a stabilization and recovery in performance [2] - The overseas business continues to grow, with revenue reaching 915 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 12.68% year-on-year, and a significantly higher gross margin compared to domestic operations [3] - The company has a high self-manufacturing rate of core components exceeding 70%, which enhances product quality and shortens delivery times, contributing to long-term competitiveness [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.694 billion yuan, with domestic revenue at 1.779 billion yuan, down 4.89% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 517 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.31% year-on-year [2] Operational Analysis - The company is expected to leverage government policies to enhance domestic demand, particularly in the furniture machinery sector, which may lead to an upward performance trend [2] - The overseas market expansion is a key growth driver, with a gross margin of 36.70% for overseas operations compared to 29.89% domestically [3] - The company is diversifying its product offerings through acquisitions and new subsidiaries, enhancing its competitive edge [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.008 billion yuan, 3.450 billion yuan, and 3.973 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 608 million yuan, 720 million yuan, and 841 million yuan [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 12, 10, and 8 times for the respective years [4]