Minsheng Securities·2025-04-24 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% relative to benchmark indices [4]. Core Insights - The swine industry shows stable breeding profits, with a focus on capacity reduction logic. The average price of external three yuan pigs was 15.0 CNY/kg, up 2.1% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs sold was 128.6 kg, down 0.2% [19][20]. - The beef industry is at an inflection point, with strong price performance continuing. The average price of calves was 28.2 CNY/kg, up 2.1%, and the average price of fattened cattle was 25.8 CNY/kg, up 0.7% [23][30]. - The white chicken market is affected by ongoing avian influenza, with significant impacts on breeding stock and prices. The average price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.8 CNY/chick, up 9.5% [31][34]. - The animal health sector is seeing a recovery in demand as breeding supply stabilizes, with a notable increase in the issuance of vaccines [48][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of external three yuan pigs was 15.0 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1%. The average weight of pigs sold was 128.6 kg, down 0.2%. The price of 15 kg external three yuan piglets was 668 CNY/head, with a slight decrease of 0.05% [19][21]. - Supply pressure remains stable, with normal sales rhythms from large producers and limited sales from smallholders. The demand side shows increased activity from secondary breeding, but overall consumption remains weak [20][21]. - The report recommends companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe for investment [20]. Beef Industry - The beef breeding industry is entering a capacity release phase, with the earliest signs of a price bottom forming. The report anticipates a potential recovery in the industry by late 2025 or early 2026 [23][30]. - The average wholesale price of beef was 61.4 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% [29][30]. - Recommended companies include Fucheng Co. and Guangming Meat Industry, focusing on integrated breeding and sales [23]. Poultry Industry - The average price of white feather broiler eggs was 1.6 CNY/egg, up 2.0%, while the average price of white feather broilers was 3.7 CNY/kg, up 2.2% [31][34]. - The report highlights the impact of avian influenza on breeding imports, particularly from the U.S. and New Zealand, which has been suspended for over three months [31][32]. - Recommended companies include Yisheng Livestock and He Feng Food [31]. Animal Health Sector - The demand for animal health products is expected to recover as breeding supply stabilizes. The issuance of vaccines has shown significant increases, particularly for swine diseases [48][49]. - The report recommends companies like Kexin Biological and Zhongmu Biotechnology, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in the animal health market [49].