格林大华期货早盘提示-20250424

Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range trading [2] - Egg: High short [2] Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the domestic spot price fluctuates. In the medium - term, the supply pattern may tighten, but policy grain and wheat substitution may limit price increase. In the long - term, it follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the supply is balanced, and the price fluctuates around 15 yuan/kg. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will be realized in the next 6 months. In the long - term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year [2]. - Egg: This week, the social inventory is rising, and the spot price is weakening in the short - term. The supply of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June, and the spot price may face pressure during the rainy season [2][3]. Summary by Category Corn Market Review - Yesterday, the corn futures fluctuated. The 2507 contract closed with a daily increase of 0.35%, at 2324 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises rose slightly. On April 23, the corn trading of CCDC had different transaction rates and prices [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: The domestic grass - roots grain sales are ending, port inventory is decreasing, and the spot price fluctuates. Medium - term: Import and substitution may decrease, but policy grain and wheat substitution may limit price increase. Long - term: It follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range operation; Medium - term: Low long; Short - term: Rebound. If the 2507 contract stands above MA60, the expected price is 2340 - 2350. The support of the 2509 contract moves up to 2320 - 2330, and pay attention to whether 2350 can be broken [1]. Pig Market Review - Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2507 contract had a daily decline of 0.59%, at 13590 yuan/ton; the LH2509 contract had a daily decline of 0.93%, at 14365 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - On April 23, the national average pig price was 15.05 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. There are also data on the inventory of medium - large pigs, newborn piglets, and fertile sows [2]. Market Logic - Short - term: The supply is balanced, and the price fluctuates between 14 - 15 yuan/kg. As the weather gets warmer, the supply may exceed demand. Medium - term: The supply pressure will be realized in the next 6 months. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized this year [2]. Trading Strategy - The disk has already priced in the decline. After the Spring Festival, it has been trading the repair logic. The medium - term is in range operation, and the short - term is fluctuating weakly. The support of the 2507 contract is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure is 13700. The support of the 2509 contract is 14100 - 14200, and the pressure is 14650 - 14700 [2]. Egg Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The JD2506 contract had a daily decline of 0.13%, at 3026 yuan/500kg; the JD2507 contract had a daily decline of 0.16%, at 3118 yuan/500kg; the JD2509 contract had a daily increase of 0.31%, at 3825 yuan/500kg [2]. Important Information - On the 23rd, the national egg price was weakly stable. The inventory of production and circulation links increased. The price of old hens was mostly stable. There are also data on egg size ratio, laying hen inventory, chicken苗 sales, and poultry production [2][3]. Market Logic - This week, the social inventory is rising, and the spot price is weakening in the short - term. The supply of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June, and the spot price may face pressure during the rainy season [2][3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was suggested to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the spot price reached the peak. If the 2507 contract effectively breaks below the MA20 moving average and the 2509 contract effectively breaks below 3800, it may open further downward space; otherwise, maintain the range - trading idea [3].