高盛：中国房地产-下调预期 -小波折，非逆转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on specific developers such as CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the current market environment [5][58]. Core Insights - The report suggests that the recent US-China tariff increases will create a temporary hiccup in the property market's stabilization rather than a complete reversal, with price stabilization in higher-tier cities expected to be delayed by 6-12 months [1][2]. - The property market is anticipated to face a contraction in sales volume, with a 13% reduction in secondary sales volume estimates for 2025E-2027E and a 2% decrease in prices [2][20]. - The analysis indicates that central SOE developers are better positioned due to their concentrated land banking strategies in resilient housing markets, which should support faster recovery of sales and margins [43][58]. Summary by Sections Industry Forecasts - The report revises down the forecasts for property sales, with a projected decline of 8% in 2025E and 6% in 2026E, reflecting weakened housing demand amid trade tensions [30][63]. - The average property sales value is expected to decline by 13% in 2025E and 8% in 2026E, with a stabilization anticipated in 2027E [30][63]. Market Dynamics - The secondary market is expected to see a widening of bid-ask spreads, leading to potential volume contraction, particularly in coastal cities with high export exposure [16][17]. - The average daily new home sales in export-reliant cities have dropped by approximately 30% since the tariff announcement, compared to a 25% decline in other tracked cities [9][10]. Developer Performance - Developers with a focus on land acquisition in top-tier cities are expected to recover profitability ahead of the industry average, with over 80% of total land acquisition value concentrated in these cities [5][43]. - The report highlights that the average population growth in top-10 cities is 4% since 2020, contributing to divergent performance among cities [10][12]. Financial Metrics - The report lowers the underlying EPS estimates for the coverage universe by 4%-6% for 2025E-2027E, reflecting lower contract sales and margins [2][63]. - The NAV-based price targets for the coverage developers are reduced by an average of 2%-3%, indicating a potential upside of 13% for SOEs and a downside of 2% for POEs [63].