野村东方国际 关税冲击下，家电外销与海外需求展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the home appliance industry due to significant tariff impacts on exports to the U.S. starting from April 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The direct export of home appliances from China to the U.S. accounts for approximately 20%, and this is expected to decline significantly due to tariffs, affecting overall export growth [1][2]. - Samsung's home appliance business contributes about 20% to its total revenue, while LG's contribution is around 45%, with both companies facing tariff disruptions [1][3]. - Mexico is highlighted as a tax haven benefiting from the USMCA agreement, making it crucial for home appliance companies to mitigate tariff impacts, especially in light of unfavorable negotiations in Southeast Asia [1][5]. - Companies with higher production capacities in North America or Mexico, such as Haier and Hisense, are deemed to have stronger risk resilience [1][6]. - Emerging markets like Vietnam and Malaysia are performing well, while Thailand faces challenges. Brazil's air conditioning sales have surged nearly 50%, with a projected growth of about 15% in 2025 [1][12]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Exports - The report anticipates a noticeable decline in direct exports to the U.S. starting April 2025, which will negatively impact overall export growth [2][3]. Competitor Analysis - Samsung and LG are both affected by tariffs, with Samsung's black appliances showing stronger profitability compared to white appliances [3][8]. - LG focuses more on white appliances, with a significant market share in North America [8][9]. Production Capacity and Risk Assessment - Companies with substantial production in North America or Mexico are better positioned to withstand tariff impacts, while those concentrated in Southeast Asia face greater challenges [6][10]. - The competitive landscape in the U.S. white appliance market shows that Korean companies are at a disadvantage compared to Chinese firms like Haier, which have a higher local production capacity [10]. Emerging Market Performance - Southeast Asia shows varied performance, with Vietnam and Malaysia thriving, while Thailand is under pressure due to low economic growth and aging population [12][13]. - Brazil's air conditioning market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, while the Middle East's demand is heavily influenced by oil price fluctuations [15][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high domestic sales and those benefiting from post-real estate cycle growth and government subsidies, while also highlighting small enterprises with high export ratios and strong brand presence [20].