“关税冲击下的中国”系列（一）：关税观察：外贸大省招几何？

Core Insights - The report highlights that major foreign trade provinces in China are actively responding to tariff risks and are attempting to navigate through challenges posed by "Trade Conflict 2.0" [3][4] - It emphasizes the uneven development of foreign trade across regions, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Shanghai accounting for nearly 70% of the national export volume, indicating that the impact of trade conflicts varies significantly across provinces [4][7][8] Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - The negative impact of exports on the economy is becoming increasingly evident in major foreign trade provinces, with export growth rates in these provinces starting to converge with those of other regions, indicating a weakening "export rush" [4][6] - Among the five major provinces, Guangdong has experienced the slowest overall export growth, which correlates with its underwhelming economic performance in the first quarter [4][12] Resilience Against Trade Shocks - The report assesses resilience against future trade shocks through three perspectives: product diversification, reliance on exports to the U.S., and internal demand strength [4][5] - In terms of product diversification, Shandong and Zhejiang rank highest, suggesting they face relatively lower export downward pressure in the second quarter [4][5][15] - Regarding reliance on U.S. exports, Shandong has the lowest dependency, which may mitigate its export decline compared to other provinces [5][17][18] Internal Demand and Consumption - The report notes that provinces with high export ratios have increasingly relied on domestic consumption to support economic growth, especially following the first trade conflict in 2018 [6][21] - Recent data shows that Jiangsu and Shandong have outperformed the national average in retail sales growth, indicating stronger internal demand [6][20] - The effectiveness of upcoming consumption-boosting policies will be crucial, particularly for provinces like Guangdong and Shanghai, which are currently lagging [6][20][24]