安粮期货豆粕日报-20250424

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - Soybean Oil: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may experience short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. - Soybean Meal: Soybean meal may show a short - term oscillatory upward trend [1]. - Corn: In the short term, corn futures prices will be range - bound, and a range - trading strategy is recommended [1]. - Copper: Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the shape of the monthly K - line [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The Y2507 contract of lithium carbonate may be weakly oscillatory, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4]. - Steel: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke will experience a weak oscillatory rebound at low levels, with limited upside [6][7]. - Iron Ore: The I2505 contract of iron ore will be oscillatory in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [8]. - Crude Oil: In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. Attention should be paid to the resistance at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - Rubber: Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - PVC: Due to weak demand, PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels [11]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12]. Market Analysis by Product Soybean Oil - Spot Market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Market Situation: Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - Spot Market: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,700 yuan/ton, 4,080 yuan/ton, 3,840 yuan/ton, and 3,620 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Market Situation: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved. U.S. soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion. As Brazilian soybeans arrive in China, the supply of soybean meal is expected to become more abundant. The pre - May Day inventory build - up in the spot market and the oil mill's production are misaligned, leading to a low inventory of soybean meal [1]. Corn - Spot Market: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,105 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,313 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are in the range of 2,160 - 2,190 yuan/ton [1]. - Market Situation: The impact of U.S. tariff events on the U.S. corn market is weakening. The USDA report in April lowered the U.S. corn production and ending stocks, and the weakening U.S. dollar index supports the U.S. corn futures. In China, farmers have sold most of their corn, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to factors such as slow pig production reduction, high feed inventory, wheat substitution, and the upcoming new wheat harvest [1]. Copper - Spot Market: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - Market Situation: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and overseas capital markets are highly volatile. The Fed's uncertain actions and domestic policy support co - exist. The raw material supply problem of copper has not been completely resolved, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Market: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 69,500 yuan/ton (down 500 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 68,100 yuan/ton (down 750 yuan/ton) [3]. - Market Situation: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is declining. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not strong enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory has been increasing [3][4]. Steel - Spot Market: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - Market Situation: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weakened contango structure and a neutral - to - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry, the apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices are oscillating weakly. Steel inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Market: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6]. - Market Situation: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively abundant. Domestic production capacity is recovering, and the utilization rate of coking plants is stable. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises is gradually increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - Spot Market: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 99.3, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 777 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8]. - Market Situation: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. The Australian iron ore shipment has decreased, while the Brazilian shipment has increased. The global total shipment has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic steel mill's iron production has increased, but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy increases market volatility [8]. Crude Oil - Market Situation: The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the U.S. inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation cuts for April - May, offsetting the planned increase in May. However, the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy still exists. In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. The demand in the second quarter may be severely affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - Spot Market: Not provided in detail, but mentioned the impact on China's tire and automobile exports [10]. - Market Situation: The global rubber market is affected by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, showing a weak oscillatory trend. The supply in China is gradually recovering, and the supply in Thailand is abundant. The global rubber market has a situation of both loose supply and demand, and the U.S. automobile tariff may suppress the demand [10]. PVC - Spot Market: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [11]. - Market Situation: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [11]. Soda Ash - Spot Market: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,413.06 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [12]. - Market Situation: The overall operating rate of soda ash production has increased, and the output has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures market may be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12].