申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading day, with the T2506 contract down 0.18% and the trading volume decreasing. - The IRR values of the CTD bonds corresponding to the major treasury bond futures contracts were at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed changes, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 2.6bp, the DR007 rate down 2.32bp, and the GC007 rate up 3.3bp. - The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes, with the 10Y treasury bond yield up 1.24bp to 1.66%. - The 10Y US treasury bond yield was down 1bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield was up 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield was up 1.7bp. - The central bank increased its open - market operations, with a net injection of 35 billion yuan. The Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined, and the capital market remained stable. The market's expectation for relevant policies to be introduced in the future has increased, and the central bank will strengthen the intensity of monetary policy regulation. It is expected to continue to support the prices of treasury bond futures. However, due to the strong economic resilience, the price fluctuations of long - end treasury bond futures may increase as the market's risk - aversion sentiment eases periodically. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Trading Volume: The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined, with the T2506 contract down 0.18%. The trading volume of each contract varied, and the open interest of most contracts decreased. For example, the open interest of the T2506 contract decreased by 4,020. [2] - IRR: The IRR values of the CTD bonds corresponding to the major treasury bond futures contracts were at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. [2] Spot Market - Short - term Market Interest Rates: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed changes. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 2.6bp, the DR007 rate decreased by 2.32bp, and the GC007 rate increased by 3.3bp. [2] - Key - term Treasury Bond Yields in China: The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 1.24bp to 1.66%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 16.17bp. [2] - Key - term Treasury Bond Yields Overseas: The 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield increased by 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield increased by 1.7bp. [2] Macro News - Central Bank Operations: On April 23, the central bank conducted 108 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 3.5 billion yuan. [3] - Policy Announcements: The central bank introduced the "Action Plan for Further Improving the Convenience of Cross - border Financial Services in Shanghai International Financial Center", which has two core points and four highlights. [3] - Treasury Bond Issuance: In 2025, the special treasury bonds for capital injection of central financial institutions will be issued on April 24, with an amount of 165 billion yuan and a term of 5 years. The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong. [3] - International Economic Situation: The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is uncertainty in international trade policies. The US April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the service industry PMI preliminary value was 51.4. [3] Industry Information - Interest Rate Changes: Most money market interest rates declined, and most US treasury bond yields increased. The yield of the 2 - year US treasury bond increased by 5.8bp, and the yield of the 30 - year US treasury bond decreased by 4.09bp. [3] Comments and Strategies - The prices of treasury bond futures slightly declined, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased to 1.66%. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the capital market remained stable. The market's expectation for relevant policies to be introduced in the future has increased, and the central bank will strengthen the intensity of monetary policy regulation. It is expected to continue to support the prices of treasury bond futures, but the price fluctuations of long - end treasury bond futures may increase. [3]