长江期货市场交易指引-20250424

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to move sideways, while treasury bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Temporarily hold off on trading rebar; iron ore is expected to be weak; coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Trade copper cautiously within a range; hold off on trading aluminum; consider shorting nickel at high prices; trade tin and silver within a range; buy gold on dips after a full correction [1][11] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to move sideways; hold short positions in soda ash call options [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply; apples are expected to strengthen; PTA is expected to be weak [1][32] - Agricultural Livestock: Pigs are expected to trade within a range; eggs are expected to be weak; go long on corn on dips; soybean meal is expected to be strong; oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][35] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as Trump's tariff policies, PMI data, and central bank policies affecting the market. Different industries and commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, considering the pressure from the weakening export chain, the index futures may move sideways [5] - Treasury Bonds: After the market adjustment, and considering the improvement of the capital situation, the risk of further weakening of the bond market is not high, and treasury bonds may rise slightly [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price has rebounded, but the policy is expected to be uncertain, and the demand may decline seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Iron Ore: Although there are some supporting factors, the negative feedback from the finished product end and the expected increase in overseas supply may lead to a weak trend [7][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are in a state of game, and they are expected to move sideways in the short term, with attention paid to relevant factors such as terminal demand and profit repair [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The fundamentals are strong, but the macro - factors are complex. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [11] - Aluminum: The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Nickel: Although there are some positive factors, the overall supply is still excessive. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [14][15] - Tin: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may recover. It is recommended to trade within a range [16] - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as market recession expectations and central bank policies, they are expected to move sideways. It is recommended to trade within a range or buy gold on dips [17] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is expected to move sideways, with attention paid to policy and export factors [19] - Caustic Soda: The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to move sideways, with attention paid to inventory and demand factors [21] - Rubber: The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected to move sideways, with attention paid to weather and demand factors [22] - Urea: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to support the price. It is expected to move sideways within a range [25] - Methanol: The supply is high, and the demand is stable. It is expected to move sideways within a range [27] - Plastic: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways at a low level [29] - Soda Ash: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [30] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by Trump's tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see [32] - Apples: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen, but attention should be paid to macro risks [33] - PTA: Although the supply - demand is good, the cost decline and weak terminal demand may lead to a weak trend [33][34] Agricultural Livestock - Pigs: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to trade within a range [35][37] - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short at high prices [38][39] - Corn: The short - term price is supported, and the long - term price may rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41] - Soybean Meal: The short - term supply is tight, and the long - term price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41][42] - Oils and Fats: The short - term is in a high - level shock, and the long - term may first decline and then rise. Be cautious when chasing up [42][48]