Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing different market conditions. For example, in the short term, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as holidays, production, and consumption, showing a trend of high - level volatility; in the long term, factors such as production capacity changes, weather, and policy will have an impact on prices [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - Current Situation: On April 24, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14.4 - 15.1 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg. The price in the morning was stable with a slight downward trend. The supply in April continued to increase, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to narrow. The demand was limited by the high price and off - peak consumption season [1]. - Medium - and Long - Term Outlook: From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From April to September 2025, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year. The supply pressure in the second quarter was still high, and the pig price was at risk of decline under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Starting from December 2024, the pig production capacity was reduced, but the reduction range was limited [1]. - Strategy: Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the pig price rebound was under pressure, but the decline of the futures price was also limited due to the early realization of weak expectations. For the 07 contract, the pressure level was 13800 - 14000, and the support level was 13300 - 13400; for the 09 contract, the pressure level was 14600 - 14800, and the support level was 13800 - 14000. It was advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options for the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Egg - Current Situation: On April 24, the price of eggs in Shandong Dezhou was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The approaching May Day holiday increased the terminal consumption expectation and supported the egg price, but the supply was relatively sufficient due to the large number of laying hens starting to lay eggs and the slow elimination of production capacity [2]. - Medium - and Long - Term Outlook: High breeding profits drove high enthusiasm for replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025, resulting in an increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens in the second quarter. The supply was expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year, but the impact of the elimination of old hens on the phased supply needed to be noted [2]. - Strategy: The 06 contract was slightly at a discount to the spot price, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The 08 and 09 contracts were bearish in the long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and the elimination of hens [2]. Oil - Current Situation: On April 23, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 0.98% to 48.47 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.71% to 4035 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton to 8890 - 9270 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price rose 50 - 60 yuan/ton to 8090 - 8390 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 10 yuan/ton to 9420 - 9780 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Medium - and Long - Term Outlook: - Palm Oil: The Malaysian inventory started to rise in March, and the production continued to increase in April. Although the export was strong, the market was still trading the future production increase expectation. In the short term, the 07 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, the price was likely to decline from May to July [5]. - Soybean Oil: The South American soybean supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, but factors such as Sino - US negotiations, the improvement of US biodiesel demand, and the decrease in the sowing area of new - season US soybeans were in a game. The 07 contract of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate around 1050 in the short term. The domestic soybean oil supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, and the price was likely to fall first and then rise from July to September [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed market was in a high - level shock. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was still large. After the opening of Australian rapeseed imports, the shortage of long - term rapeseed supply was expected to be partially alleviated, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7]. - Strategy: For the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, it was advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term. For the spread trading, it was advisable to expand the spread of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil [8]. Soybean Meal - Current Situation: On April 23, the US soybean 07 contract rose 4.25 cents to 1050.25 cents/bushel. The domestic spot basis strengthened significantly, and the 05 contract price also rose. The short - term price was expected to remain strong due to the low inventory, but there was a risk of a high - level decline as the soybean arrival increased at the end of April [8]. - Medium - and Long - Term Outlook: Tariff policies led to an increase in the cost of importing US soybeans and a decrease in the supply. The domestic market would transfer more positions to South America, which was expected to drive up the prices of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the long term. The sowing area of US soybeans was expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal price was expected to be strong in the long term [8]. - Strategy: For the 09 contract, it was advisable to be short at high prices in the short term, paying attention to the 3150 pressure level, and be long at low prices in the long term, paying attention to the 2900 support level. For the spread trading, it was advisable to do long - short spreads for the 5 - 9, 7 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8]. Corn - Current Situation: On April 23, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2210 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2250 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose 10 yuan/ton to 2366 yuan/ton. The supply and demand game in the market intensified, but the market was still optimistic about the future price [9]. - Medium - and Long - Term Outlook: The new - season corn production was expected to decrease, and the import continued to decrease, which provided an upward driving force for the price. However, the reduction in production might be less than expected, and the price increase space was limited due to factors such as the decrease in planting costs and the supply of substitutes [9]. - Strategy: The overall trend was expected to be stable and slightly strong. It was advisable to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2280 support level of the 07 contract [9].
饲料养殖产业日报-20250424
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-24 02:36