特朗普对华态度软化，冲击大类资产走势

Report Investment Rating - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4]. Core Viewpoints - External risks have risen, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's economic new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation is taking shape. The window for interest rate cuts may open in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the window period of domestic easing policies during the April Politburo meeting [1]. - The negative impact of tariff events on asset prices has temporarily ended. Future focus should be on the impact on the economic fundamentals. The US tariff policy may lead to stagflation in the US economy [2]. - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's government has set a positive tone for the year, with an increased deficit rate, a lower CPI target, and expanded government credit. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months, and the interest rate cut window may open in Q2 [1]. - Trump's tariff policy has been volatile. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries' photovoltaic products. Trump may "significantly reduce" tariffs on China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations with Japan and the EU [2]. Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the market first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products are vulnerable to the impact of US stock market adjustments. The accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supports copper prices. Agricultural products may see price increases, and attention should be paid to the change in the soybean - palm oil spread. Crude oil prices have declined, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term [3]. Strategy - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [4].