宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250424

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overnight VIX index declined, and the improvement in macro sentiment drove the rebound of oil prices. The potential significant reduction of tariffs on China further alleviated market concerns, leading to a continued increase in oil prices during the Asian session. However, without effective resolution of the tariff issue, long - term market suppression is expected to persist. The polyester industry still faces demand drag, and with the approaching "May Day" holiday in China, the terminal operating rate may further decline [2]. - PTA prices rose due to the temporary easing of trade frictions, improved market sentiment, rising crude oil prices, and increased downstream polyester sales. Although PTA social inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history, there are signs of a slight reduction in the past month, with hopes of inventory reduction from April to May. But due to macro news and demand drag, the upward drive of raw materials is continuously weakening [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market's center of gravity rose. The supply - side quotes were mixed, and downstream terminal buying improved in the afternoon. The bottle - chip industry's operating rate has increased recently, and mainstream producers intend to cut production to support prices. The market follows a cost - pricing logic [2]. - Considering the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations and the overnight oil market situation, it is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On April 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.27/barrel, down 2.20%; Brent crude oil was $66.12/barrel, down 1.96%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $589/ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $658/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $750/ton, up 1.63% [1]. - PTA: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4408 yuan/ton, up 2.37%; settlement price was 4342 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4299 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4345 yuan/ton, up 1.14%, and the external price index was $570.5/ton, down 0.35% [1]. - PX: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6224 yuan/ton, up 2.88%; settlement price was 6114 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 5956 yuan/ton. The PXN spread was $161/ton, down 0.62%, and the PX - MX spread was $92/ton, up 11.52% [1]. - PR: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.32%; settlement price was 5626 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and in the South China market was 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.88% [1]. - Downstream: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8375 yuan/ton; the index of polyester POY was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester chips was 5500 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 72.50%. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 82.14%, up 3.26%; the polyester factory load rate was 90.11%, up 1.16%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.44%, up 4.00%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 63.43% [1]. Production and Sales - On April 23, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 72.00%, up 32.00% from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 93.00%, up 24.00%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 207.00%, up 166.00% [1]. Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul its 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in Huizhou on April 28 and its 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May [2]. Trading Strategy - Due to the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations, the TA2509 contract closed at 4408 yuan/ton (2.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.19 million lots; the PX 2509 contract closed at 6224 yuan/ton (2.91%), with an intraday trading volume of 20,270 lots; the PR 2506 contract closed at 5686 yuan/ton (1.68%), with an intraday trading volume of 43,400 lots. Overnight, international oil prices first rose and then fell, but the decline narrowed after reports that US President Trump might lower tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]