工业硅、多晶硅日评：震荡企稳-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north, with overall limited changes. On the demand side, polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises are in a state of production reduction, and the demand for industrial silicon is weak. The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and the industry has high inventory pressure. The silicon price is expected to face pressure after the rebound [1]. - The polysilicon market has a situation where supply and demand are both changing. Supply-side enterprises maintain production reduction, and demand-side distributed component orders cool down while centralized orders increase. With the approaching of the 430 rush installation node, the demand is expected to weaken in May, which will drag down the polysilicon price. The polysilicon futures market is in a state of shock and then stabilizes [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of industrial silicon non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,550 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.48% to 8,930 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Furnace openings in Xinjiang decreased, while new furnace openings appeared in Sichuan. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new production capacity put into operation, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north, with overall limited changes [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the downstream is in a wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises in production are expected to further reduce the operating rate to below 70% in April, and the demand for industrial silicon will further decline. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. Investment Strategy - Considering the strong supply and weak demand in the silicon market and high inventory pressure, the strategy is to consider shorting after the price rebounds, with an operating range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 39.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re-feeding material remained flat at 36 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.93% to 39,135 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, and the output in April is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: As the 430 rush installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, while the demand for centralized orders has increased. The battery production schedule has increased to 63 - 64GW, with sufficient supply and a decline in the transaction price. On the silicon wafer side, affected by the earthquake and the cautious production schedule of leading enterprises, the silicon wafer production schedule in April may fall short of expectations. After the demand peak in the middle and late April and May ends, the upward space for silicon wafers is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - As the demand is expected to weaken in May, which will drag down the polysilicon price, the polysilicon futures market is in a state of shock and then stabilizes. The cross-period strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and the 11 - 12 negative spread. Continuously monitor the futures warehouse receipt registration situation and the actual operating situation of polysilicon factories [1]. Other Information - On April 21, according to data from the German Federal Network Agency, the newly installed solar photovoltaic capacity in Germany in March was about 787.2 megawatts, the lowest monthly performance in the German photovoltaic market since December 2022. This decline may be related to the new regulations of the "Solarspitzengesetz" that came into effect at the end of February [1].