Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information indicating the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and China's economic recovery potential, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [6]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. - The long - term value of gold is still promising. It is advisable to temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand fundamentals, valuation, and technical aspects, such as short - term trading, waiting for opportunities, or temporary observation in the face of complex market conditions. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - Performance: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts down 0.40%, 0.17%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - Analysis: The external environment is favorable, but yields are low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 futures主力 contracts were down 0.16%, 0.53%, and 0.04% respectively, while the CSI 1000 futures主力 contract was up 0.65% [8]. - Analysis: Although the current domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the recovery rhythm. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and policy hedging space, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 784.28, down 5.67%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 8,199, up 0.31% [12]. - Analysis: The long - term value of gold is still promising. Temporarily take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities to go long [14]. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars, Hot - Rolled Coils) - Performance: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of billets, ribbed bars, and hot - rolled coils are in specific ranges [16]. - Analysis: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses prices, but short - term seasonal demand may support prices. The valuation is low, and there is support at the previous low. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder are given [18]. - Analysis: The increase in demand and the decrease in supply support prices. The valuation is relatively high in the black series. Investors can focus on buying at low levels and take profit on rebounds [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded sharply [21]. - Analysis: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has improved. The spot price increase is limited. There are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.82%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 0.32%. The spot prices are stable [23]. - Analysis: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The supply - demand imbalance is gradually improving. Consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese - silicon and short - covering opportunities for silicon - iron [24]. Crude Oil - Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly [25]. - Analysis: The macro - level changes are large, and the geopolitical risks are high. The resistance of Brent crude at $70 is strong. It is recommended to temporarily observe [26][27]. Fuel Oil - Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly, following crude oil [28]. - Analysis: The macro - level changes are large, and the cost of crude oil drives the price up. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, and the trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to temporarily observe [28][29]. Synthetic Rubber - Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract rose 2.96%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was stable [30]. - Analysis: The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [30][32]. Natural Rubber - Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract and 20 - rubber主力 contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai spot price increased [33]. - Analysis: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [33][34]. PVC - Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract rose 0.60%, and the spot price was basically stable [35]. - Analysis: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. The market is expected to be volatile [35]. Urea - Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell 0.56%, and the price in Shandong Linyi decreased [38]. - Analysis: The agricultural demand is off - season, the new production capacity is released, and the inventory increases. It is expected to be weak in the short term [38][39]. PX - Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2509主力 contract rose 2.91%, and the spreads decreased [40]. - Analysis: The PX devices are under maintenance, the downstream PTA starts to decline, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509主力 contract rose 2.51%, and the price in the East China market is given [42]. - Analysis: The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, and the external crude oil price strengthens. It is expected to run volatilely and operate following the cost [42]. Ethylene Glycol - Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 1.27%, and the price in the East China market is given [43]. - Analysis: The coal - based devices are under maintenance, the supply is reduced, but the high inventory limits the rebound. It is expected to run at the bottom and operate cautiously [43][45]. Short - Fiber - Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506主力 contract rose 1.94% [46]. - Analysis: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is improved. It is expected to adjust with the cost and operate cautiously [46]. Bottle Chips - Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506主力 contract rose 1.68% [47]. - Analysis: The raw material price recovers, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. It is expected to run with the cost and pay attention to cost changes [47]. Soda Ash - Performance: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of soda ash closed at 1373 yuan/ton, up 3.39% [48]. - Analysis: The supply is high, the new orders are average, and the downstream procurement is not active. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [49]. Glass - Performance: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of glass closed at 1154 yuan/ton, up 2.21% [50]. - Analysis: The production line is at a low level, the inventory changes little, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariff impacts [50]. Caustic Soda - Performance: On the previous trading day, the 2509主力 contract of caustic soda closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [51]. - Analysis: Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, and the profit improves. The alumina has limited positive drivers, and the market turns weak again [52]. Pulp - Performance: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of pulp closed at 5402 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [53]. - Analysis: The inventory accumulates slightly, the downstream starts vary, and the market is affected by tariff news. It is expected to be volatile at a low level [53]. Lithium Carbonate - Performance: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力 contract rose 1.14% to 68980 yuan/ton [54]. - Analysis: The macro - events affect the market, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to run weakly [54][55]. Copper - Performance: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upwards [56]. - Analysis: The Sino - US tariffs are expected to be reduced, and the copper price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to take long positions [56][57]. Tin - Performance: On the previous trading day, tin rose 1.11% to 261480 yuan/ton [58]. - Analysis: The tin price fluctuates due to tariffs. The supply and demand factors are intertwined. It is expected to run volatilely, and control risks in the short term [58][59]. Nickel - Performance: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell 0.55% to 125120 yuan/ton [60]. - Analysis: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs. The supply is tightened, and the cost is supported, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to control risks and observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - Performance: On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell significantly, and the spot prices decreased [61]. - Analysis: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract was flat, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.19%. The spot prices increased [63]. - Analysis: The trade concerns ease, the supply is loose, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. Observe for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil [63][64]. Palm Oil - Performance: The Malaysian palm oil closed up, and the domestic import volume increased in March [65]. - Analysis: It is recommended to temporarily observe [67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Performance: The Canadian rapeseed rose for the second consecutive day. The domestic import volume of rapeseed oil increased, while that of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in March [68]. - Analysis: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69]. Cotton - Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external cotton rose overnight [70]. - Analysis: The tariffs affect the demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high levels on rebounds for the far - month contracts [72][73]. Sugar - Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and the external raw sugar fell slightly [74]. - Analysis: The international raw sugar is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to observe [76][77]. Apples - Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [78]. - Analysis: The inventory is low, the consumption is good, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [78][80]. Live Pigs - Performance: The national average price of live pigs was flat. The futures主力 contract fell 0.93% [81][82]. - Analysis: The group - farmed pigs' planned output in April has limited increase, and the consumption is in the off - season. The spot price may be supported in the short term, and the far - month contracts may be affected by cost expectations [82]. Eggs - Performance: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas was flat. The cost and profit are in a narrow - range oscillation [83]. - Analysis: The supply of eggs is expected to increase in April, and the consumption is in the off - season. Consider the opportunity for reverse spreads [83][84]. Corn - Performance: On the previous trading day, the corn主力 contract rose 0.35%. The spot prices in the north and south ports are given [85]. - Analysis: The domestic corn supply surplus eases, and the demand increases slightly. The short - term supply pressure exists. It is recommended to observe [85][86]. Logs - Performance: On the previous trading day, the 2507主力 contract of logs closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [87]. - Analysis: The tropical cyclone affects the shipment, and the spot price is weak. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate demand is weak [87].
西南期货早间评论-20250424
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-24 02:57