Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On April 23, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 125,810 yuan/ton and closed at 126,240 yuan/ton, a change of 0.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 92,776 lots, and the open interest was 32,551 lots [2]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel fluctuated slightly throughout the morning and finally closed higher due to market sentiment. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest remained basically flat. The red column area of the daily MACD enlarged, but the upward momentum was weak, and the short - term upward trend slowed down. There was a top divergence at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line. The upward trend of the Shanghai Nickel market after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival has lasted for 9 trading days. Attention should be paid to the short - term pressure level of 126,000 - 128,000. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan Nickel increased by about 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands varied. Most downstream enterprises were over - stocked last week, and the rigid demand for procurement weakened. The overall spot trading of refined nickel remained sluggish. The premium and discount adjusted due to the change of the main contract and were in a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,336 (- 48.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,252 (- 2,178) tons [3]. Strategy - Due to the cooling of the trading willingness of refined nickel spot and the top divergence at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound operations; there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On April 23, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,790 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,037 lots, and the open interest was 132,737 lots [4]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened higher in the morning and then fluctuated throughout the day. The overall trend was still weaker than that of the Shanghai Nickel market. The daily line closed in a positive line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased significantly. The green column area of the daily MACD decreased slightly, and the short - term downward force did not increase but still existed. Attention should be paid to the pressure level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day in the morning. Affected by the market trend, market confidence remained low. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, most spot merchants mainly focused on recovering funds and maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation remained the same as the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly around 970 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,175 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 435 - 585 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron including tax changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 975.0 yuan/nickel point [5][6]. Strategy - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the tariff policy, stainless steel was pushed below the 13,000 integer mark, but there is still support from the nickel - iron cost below. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [7].
新能源及有色金属日报：特朗普对华态度好转，沪镍小幅上行-20250424
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-24 02:56