中美关税存谈判可能，关注马士基5月下半月价格情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical events such as the postponement of the Iran - US indirect talks and the uncertainty of US - China tariff policies are affecting the shipping market [4][5] - The shipping capacity in May is gradually increasing, with the monthly average weekly capacity around 270,500 TEU, a year - on - year increase of over 18% in 2024. There are many empty sailings on the US routes, and some ships may be transferred to European routes [4] - The 06 and 08 contracts are seasonal peak - season contracts, and the uncertainty of tariff policies affects their valuations. The probability of the Suez Canal reopening in June and August is decreasing [5] - The cargo volume on European routes is fair, but the US tariff policy has a significant impact on US routes. Ship companies are formulating route adjustment plans, and if more US - bound ships are transferred to European routes, European route freight rates will face pressure [5] - It is necessary to closely monitor the possibility of China - US negotiations. If negotiations occur and some goods are exempted from export tariffs, there may be supply - demand mismatches on US routes, which will have a positive impact on European routes. Due to the uncertainty of tariff policies, it is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's quotes have been decreasing, and some companies' quotes in May have significant changes. The price center in the first half of May will continue to decline to around $1,800 - $1,900/FEU, and Maersk's quotes for the second half of May are expected to be between $1,600 - $1,700/FEU [2][3] Geopolitical and Capacity - Geopolitical events: The Iran - US indirect talks' technical meeting was postponed to the 26th [4] - Capacity: The shipping capacity in May is gradually increasing, and there are many empty sailings on US routes. A total of 8 ships on US routes have been transferred to European routes after May, with a total capacity of 91,300 TEU [4] Contract and Price Analysis - Contracts: The 06 and 08 contracts are affected by tariff policies and seasonal factors. The 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading, while the 08 contract will face a game between expectations and reality [5] - Price trends: The price increase expectation in May may be disappointed again. If more US - bound ships are transferred to European routes, European route freight rates will face pressure [5] Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates [8] - Arbitrage: Suspend the long 06 and short 10 arbitrage, and focus on the long 08 and short 10 and long 08 and short 06 arbitrage operations [5][8] Market Data - As of April 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index European Line Futures is 93,217 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 95,684 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary [6] - As of April 18, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $1,316/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is $2,103/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is $3,251/FEU. As of April 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1,508.44 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1,368.41 points [7] - In 2025, 82 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 644,300 TEU. As of April 18, 2025, 26 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 390,000 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [7]