Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding the overall market, the market is frequently disturbed by Sino-US tariff conflicts. Although future tariffs may drop to around 50%, this level still has a significant impact on China's exports. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [4][5]. - For different varieties, there are various investment suggestions and trend judgments, such as considering IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or staying on the sidelines for stock index futures; being moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds for treasury bond futures; suggesting to take a short - selling approach for eggs; considering short - selling the LH2507 contract for live pigs, etc. Summary by Directory Macro Information - Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will "drop significantly but not to zero", which is a response to Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment. Bessent expected the tariff war between the two major economies to "de - escalate" [5]. - China's attitude towards the US tariff war is clear: not willing to fight but not afraid to fight. China will fight if necessary and is open to talks [5]. - China and Azerbaijan will strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, green energy, and the digital economy [5]. - China's consumer market has achieved a stable start this year. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points faster than the whole of last year. The consumer market is expected to continue to develop steadily [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary adheres to the strong - dollar policy [5]. - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7, the service PMI preliminary value was 49.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1. The US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 51.4, and the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 [5]. - Several OPEC + member states will suggest that the organization accelerate oil production increases for the second consecutive month in June [5]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The stock market fluctuated narrowly due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about selling restrictions. The future tariff reduction to around 50% still has a large impact on domestic exports. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes of weak economic expectations but strong micro - liquidity expectations [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Be moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds. The money market was loose after the tax payment period, and bond market sentiment was weak due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about the central bank's investigation of duration mismatch risks. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [5]. Container Shipping to Europe - Viewpoint: Take profit on long positions in the main contract. The market sentiment on the disk has recovered, but most shipping companies will continue to use the April 30th booking quotes in early May, and some route quotes have been slightly reduced. There are many uncertainties in the market, and the average spot quote may further decline [6][7]. Cotton - Logic and Viewpoint: Domestic actual orders and demand prospects are still worrying. Although there may be a short - term relief, there is still pressure for the domestic cotton price to rebound from a low level. The domestic cotton price rebounded from a low - level shock, boosted by the easing of the global trade situation, but concerns about upstream and downstream demand remain [7]. Sugar - Logic and Viewpoint: There is a stage - based abundant supply, and there is still uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The sugar price will fluctuate. The domestic sugar price mainly follows the international sugar price. The supply is increasing in Brazil, and the exchange rate of the Brazilian real is appreciating. In China, the drought in the south has been alleviated by rainfall, which has suppressed the sugar price [7]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short - sell palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. For palm oil, the current production area has entered the production - increasing season, and the weather is expected to improve in the next two weeks, which will help increase production. For soybean meal, although there is short - term spot tension, the supply pressure will be large in May and June [7][9]. Eggs - Viewpoint: The upward pressure on the spot price is increasing, and there is a possibility of a gradual weakening. It is expected that the egg futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [8][9]. Apples - Viewpoint: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and there is an expectation of price increase. The May Day holiday stocking continues, and the market in both the production and sales areas is booming [9]. Red Dates - Viewpoint: Stop losses on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The Xinjiang jujube trees have entered the budding stage, and the supply in the Hebei market is sufficient. The demand for tonics has decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the sales areas is relatively light [9][10]. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Consider short - selling the LH2507 contract. The consumer demand is weak, and it is the seasonal off - season. The supply side shows a continuous inventory accumulation phenomenon. The short - term support for the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the continuity of second - fattening entry and the changes in the sales volume of leading enterprises [11]. Crude Oil - Future Outlook: In the long - term trading logic of the crude oil market, the supply side has pressure due to OPEC +'s planned production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in May. The demand side is affected by the weakening US economy and the global trade war. The upward space of oil prices is limited [12]. Fuel Oil - Future Outlook: Fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price fluctuations but be relatively stronger than crude oil. The key is to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the production increase under the influence of the trade war [12]. Plastics - Viewpoint: After the L and PP rebound, they can be short - sold. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the long - term impact of tariffs on export demand is large, and the downstream demand is weakening [13]. Rubber - Strategy: There is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - like fluctuation. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. After the NR04 delivery, pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR price difference to widen [13]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Short - sell after the rebound. The international trade environment is still poor, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import supply is increasing, and the downstream profit is poor, which may lead to shutdowns [13]. Caustic Soda - Future Outlook: The spot price is expected to be weak after a round of replenishment. The futures price will also show a similar trend, and it is recommended to maintain a weak - fluctuation trading idea [14]. Soda Ash and Glass - Viewpoint: For soda ash, the supply has marginally improved, but the high - inventory accumulation expectation still exists, and the price is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited space. For glass, there is a risk of decline due to the under - expected peak season. Consider the opportunity of long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage [14]. Asphalt - Future Outlook: Without the expectation of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the asphalt price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the price has support, but the upper pressure comes from the oil price [15]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Future Outlook: In the short term, LPG mainly follows the crude oil price fluctuations. The long - term logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand may drive the center of the LPG futures price to move down, and currently, it is mainly in a state of oscillation [15]. Pulp - Future Outlook: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The weak demand and high inventory situation have not improved. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Logs - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the impact of funds and macro - sentiment. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [17]. Urea - Future Outlook: The spot market atmosphere is relatively poor, and the spot price is expected to decline under pressure. The UR2509 contract can be considered for long - buying after a significant decline [17]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The tariff tension has eased, but there is still uncertainty. The high premium of Shanghai aluminum has declined, but strong de - stocking is the main trend recently. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [16][17]. - Alumina: The production capacity of maintenance and reduction is increasing, and the spot price is stable with strong cost support. However, the expected new production capacity is stable, and the supply surplus expectation is high. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term bottom range, and interval trading can be carried out [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The impact of US tariffs on the lithium carbonate market is not significant. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, and it is advisable to adopt an oscillation trading idea [17][18]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It is difficult to form a continuous de - stocking expectation. The market is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short - sell. The previous short positions and sold call options can be held [19][20]. - Polysilicon: The 06 contract is difficult to fall deeply but has limited upward space. The 07 contract is priced according to the supply - demand contradiction. It is advisable to hold the previous short positions and sold call options and short - sell on rebounds [19][20][21]. Steel and Minerals - Market Outlook: The domestic steel market has weak demand in the building materials sector and some pressure in the coil sector. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is basically stable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, with limited short - term upward space [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - Viewpoint: Without large - scale production reduction of coal - coking enterprises or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, there is no condition for going long. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [21]. Ferroalloys - Viewpoint: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and sell 06 - contract put options on silicomanganese. The current valuation of both is low, but there is a lack of rebound drivers [21][22].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250424
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-24 03:49