油料产业风险管理日报-20250424

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of soybeans in the second quarter has been continuously postponed due to the tightening of port clearance, but the subsequent main logic lies in the expectation of accelerated oil mill start - up under the high supply pressure compared to previous years. The current tight spot - market logic is expected to ease gradually after the May Day holiday, and oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the medium - to - long - term, after trading the reality of soybean meal 05, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade - war negotiation situations [4] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continuous decline of oil mill soybean meal inventory to a new low in recent years due to port clearance delays, strong long - term bullish sentiment under tariff disturbances, and the cost - side support of Brazilian export premiums for long - term contracts. Negative factors include smooth supply after subsequent soybean arrivals, cautious long - term stocking mentality on the demand side, large expected soybean arrivals in April, May, and June, relatively small supply pressure of rapeseed meal in the first half of the year but limited upside due to medium - to - high inventory, and a market situation of high prices but few transactions due to lack of bargaining power [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 68.5%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.819 [3] 2. Oil Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low regular purchase inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] 3. Oil Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3063 with no change; soybean meal 05 is 2984 with no change; soybean meal 09 is 3048, down 6 or 0.2%. The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2432, up 11 or 0.45%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2572 with no change; rapeseed meal 09 is 2679, up 21 or 0.79%. The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1051.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB is 7.3086, up 0.017 or 0.23% [9] 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Differences - The price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spot and futures price differences between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For example, the M01 - 05 soybean meal price difference is 79, down 3; the RM01 - 05 rapeseed meal price difference is - 140, down 12 [10] 5. Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are provided. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (47%) is 5387.2134 yuan/ton, down 22.8153 yuan/ton; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 345.3903 yuan/ton, up 46.0531 yuan/ton [11]