沪锌早报：12州起诉美政府，关税影响继续下降-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Zinc: Bearish outlook [1] - Nickel: Short - term rebound, then bearish; recommend selling after rebound [4][6] - Stainless steel: Hold and observe [4] 2. Core Views Zinc - Tariff impact is temporarily receding, supply is loosening in the short - term, and there is an overall surplus in the medium - and long - term [2] Nickel - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease. The nickel price rebounds in the short - term but the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged [6] Stainless steel - As nickel is on the US tariff list while stainless steel is not, the export demand for stainless steel may rise, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Macro & Industry News - 11 US states, following California, sued the Trump administration for abusing tariff policies, claiming the president has no right to impose arbitrary tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] Mine End - Mining enterprise profits were affected by tariff policies. Zinc ingot price drops led to a significant contraction in profits, from over 6000 yuan/ton to about 4000 yuan/ton, but profits are still at a relatively medium - high level. TC prices did not fall, indicating no production cuts, and imports have significantly recovered [1] Smelting - TC prices at the smelting end have rebounded to 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton and remained stable. Integrated enterprise profits have shrunk but are still decent. Pure smelting enterprise static profits turned negative again, but with by - product revenues, overall profits are positive. The possibility of production cuts is low, and supply is loosening [2] Demand - The peak demand season is ending. Galvanized capacity utilization and production are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is weak. Steel mill inventories are low, social inventories are rising, and manufacturers' profit margins are decent, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on terminal demand and a decline in zinc ingot demand [2] Nickel Macro & Industry News - In March 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 101.3 tons, a 11.5% month - on - month and 60.0% year - on - year increase. Imports from Indonesia were 98.9 tons, up 10.5% month - on - month and 60.4% year - on - year. From January to March, total imports were 285.1 tons, a 26.2% year - on - year increase, with 278.3 tons from Indonesia, a 27.6% increase [4] - In March 2025, China's nickel ore imports were 153.52 tons, a 33.95% month - on - month increase and a 0.45% year - on - year decrease. Red clay nickel ore imports were 151.4 tons, and sulfide nickel ore imports were 2.12 tons. Imports from the Philippines were 120.57 tons, accounting for 78.53% of the total. From January to March, total imports were 359.33 tons, a 5.22% year - on - year decrease [5] Mine End - Indonesia plans to raise mining royalties in the second week of April, which may support prices. In the Philippines, the rainy season in the Surigao mining area continues, and nickel ore prices may rise slightly, but the tight supply situation will improve after April. There is no continuous upward momentum for prices [5] Smelting - China imports relatively little pure nickel, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. Although the total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month, it remains at the highest level in the same period. The production cost of electrowon nickel reached 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The upper pressure line can be determined by the cost of external procurement manufacturers and the critical point of downstream nickel sulfate, which provide demand support at about 134,000 yuan/ton and 137,000 yuan/ton respectively, both lower than before [6] Demand - As nickel is on the US tariff list and stainless steel is not, the export demand for stainless steel may rise, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. High nickel - iron prices lead to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may reduce production and nickel demand [6]