国债期货：方向暂不明，区间震荡仍延续，宜正套观望

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The direction of treasury bond futures is unclear, and the range-bound oscillation continues. It is advisable to conduct positive spreads and wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On April 23, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30-year main contract fell 0.40%, the 10-year main contract fell 0.17%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.13%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04%. The treasury bond futures index was 0.44. The volume-price factor was bullish, and the fundamental factor was bullish. Without leverage, the cumulative return of the strategy in the past 20 days was -0.72%, in the past 60 days was -0.83%, in the past 120 days was 0.18%, and in the past 240 days was 0.95% [1] - In the equity market, the market opened higher and then oscillated and diverged throughout the day. The three major indexes showed different trends. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%. On the market, market hotspots rotated rapidly, with more stocks rising than falling. Over 3,100 stocks in the entire market rose [1] - In terms of funds, the overnight shibor was reported at 1.6260%, down 8.3bp from the previous trading day; the 7-day shibor was reported at 1.6440%, down 2.6bp; the 14-day shibor was reported at 1.7720%, down 2.8bp; and the 1-month shibor was reported at 1.7490%, down 0.5bp [2] - In the money market, on April 23, the interbank pledged repurchase market traded a total of 2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.15%. Among them, the overnight rate closed at 1.55%, up 5bp from the previous trading day; the 7-day rate closed at 1.65%, unchanged from the previous trading day; in the medium term, the 14-day rate closed at 1.78%, down 2bp from the previous trading day; in the long term, the 1-month rate closed at 1.71%, down 7bp from the previous trading day [4] - In the cash bond market, the treasury bond yield curve rose by 1.05 - 2.00BP (the 2Y yield rose 1.49BP to 1.47%; the 5Y yield rose 1.66BP to 1.53%; the 10Y yield rose 1.05BP to 1.66%; the 30Y yield rose 2.00BP to 1.93%. The credit bond yield curve showed mixed trends (for medium and short-term notes with a rating of AAA, the 6M maturity yield rose 5.00BP to 1.85%; the 1Y maturity yield rose 1.00BP to 1.84%; the 3Y maturity yield fell 0.50BP to 1.86%; the 5Y maturity yield fell 10.00BP to 2.08% [4] Market Data - The opening, high, low, closing prices, changes, amplitudes, trading volumes, and open interests of the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year main contracts of treasury bond futures on the previous trading day are provided. The 2-year active CTD bond was 240024.IB with an IRR of 2.43%, the 5-year active CTD bond was 240014.IB with an IRR of 2.33%, the 10-year active CTD bond was 240025.IB with an IRR of 2.34%, the 30-year active CTD bond was 200012.IB with an IRR of 2.12%, and currently R007 was about 1.7244% [3] Institutional Position Changes - The daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 3.85%, foreign capital decreased by 6.08%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 4.36%. The weekly changes: private funds decreased by 2.34%, foreign capital decreased by 6.72%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 4.92% [6] Macro and Industry News - On April 23, the central bank conducted 10.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [10]