光大期货金融期货日报-20250424

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock Index Futures: On April 23, the A - share market fluctuated narrowly, with the Wind All - A index rising 0.35% and a trading volume of 1.26 trillion yuan. Trump softened his stance on tariffs, saying that the tariff rate on China would be significantly reduced but not zero. Affected by this, gold prices fell from their highs, and the Nasdaq rose 2.7% intraday. Sectors such as new energy vehicles, electronics, and home appliances, which were previously affected by tariffs, strengthened, while the consumption and real - estate sectors weakened again. The China Securities 1000 Index rose 0.59%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 0.19%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.08%, and the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.29%. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, but expenditure increased by 4.2%, showing positive policy characteristics. The issuance progress of ordinary national bonds reached 30%, with a significantly earlier rhythm. China's Q1 GDP was 5.4%, and the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in March was 5.9%, with the consumption side making an excessive contribution to the economic aggregate. The US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern, and it may have a long - term impact on the A - share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, and themes such as consumption and dividends may be relatively dominant for a long time this year. Technology themes can focus on sub - fields such as domestic substitution and high - capital expenditure. The overall view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract down 0.40%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.17%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.04%. The central bank conducted 108 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%. There were 104.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, resulting in a net investment of 3.5 billion yuan. The economic and financial data in March were better than expected, reducing the need for short - term monetary policy to take action. Without the expected double - cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further and is expected to remain sideways in the short term. The overall view on treasury bonds is "oscillation" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On April 23, 2025, compared with April 22, 2025, IH was at 2,627.4, down 10.0 or - 0.38%; IF was at 3,734.0, up 1.0 or 0.03%; IC was at 5,495.0, up 9.0 or 0.16%; IM was at 5,820.0, up 50.4 or 0.87% [4]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 2,648.8, down 7.7 or - 0.29%; the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index was at 3,786.9, up 2.9 or 0.08%; the China Securities 500 Index was at 5,634.9, up 10.7 or 0.19%; the China Securities 1000 Index was at 5,984.6, up 35.3 or 0.59% [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS was at 102.37, down 0.034 or - 0.03%; TF was at 106.02, down 0.145 or - 0.14%; T was at 108.77, down 0.2 or - 0.18%; TL was at 119.92, up 0.59 or 0.49% [4]. - Treasury Bond Yields: The yield of the 2 - year treasury bond was 1.4705, up 1.35; the 5 - year was 1.5354, up 1.73; the 10 - year was 1.6618, up 1.24; the 30 - year was 1.9225, up 1.95 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The director of the People's Bank of China Research Bureau, Wang Xin, said on April 23 that the "Action Plan for Further Improving Cross - border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai International Financial Center" will improve the cross - border fund allocation of the full - function fund pool in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, encourage banks to gradually automate cross - border payment processing, and extend the service time for the cross - border fund pool of key enterprise groups to achieve real - time global fund allocation [5]. - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Lu Lei, said on April 23 that the "Action Plan for Further Improving Cross - border Financial Service Facilitation in Shanghai International Financial Center" has two core points: highlighting the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center and focusing on improving cross - border financial service facilitation. In 2024, the total cross - border RMB receipts and payments in Shanghai reached 29.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30%, accounting for 47% of the country's total business volume [5]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated on April 23 that on April 22, the "Seminar on Promoting Entrepreneurial Spirit and Accelerating the Construction of World - Class Enterprises" (Phase 2) was held. The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Zhang Yuzhuo, said that central enterprises should accelerate the development of new - quality productive forces, cultivate a number of strategic emerging industries and future industries with core competitiveness, and better play the roles of technological innovation, industrial control, and security support [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [7][8][9][10][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: There are charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 [14][16][18][19]. - Exchange Rates: Charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 01 are presented [23][24][25][27][28]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the treasury bond analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [30]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [30].